In my opinion, the Russian stock market is close to the correction of growth, which could happen in the next 5-10 days. Apparently, a strong impetus to growth, which lasted from February, with short breaks, at the end. This is indicated by many factors both fundamental and technical plan.

Of the fundamental factors include, for example, the fact that it is now in great demand in the market using high-quality bond issuers, both OFZ and municipal issues, as well as quasi-corporate. Worth a look at the past (the North-West Telecom, MTS, etc.), in which the oversubscription (ie the excess of demand over supply) were multiples, and the bonds were placed on the lower limit of profitability. This indicates the desire of investors transferred to the quality. In addition, you can remember about the unduly fast in terms of the dynamics of demand growth in oil prices, as well as the fact that in recent days, even with an increase in oil prices, the ruble is not strong - seems to many market participants currently preferred currency even with expensive hydrocarbons. In this brief review, I will turn more attention to market participants on the technical prerequisites for a high risk of lower prices for Russian equities in the near future.

on a weekly schedule on an index MICEX clear trend approximation to the resistance, which is just located in the vicinity of 1100 points. In doing so, agree a longer bearish trend (in the summer of 2008) and more short-term bullish (February 2009), a longer trend usually has a big effect. Also, please note the rather high shadow candles on top of current and, importantly, increased volumes - Facing trend is often accompanied by high trading volume. Some support the market could have a 21-periodnaya average, which is now located just below the level of 1000 points. Prior to that same level of reduction should be fast enough. In the case of this scenario will form a model for turning the magnitude of failure.

At day schedule MICEX index is clearly visible the strong divergence of the price indicator MACD. Last 3 days candles also suggest a high probability of further decline.

Here is the charts of oil prices and the dynamics of the American index S P500 - it is positive for the American stock sites and rise of oil are the main drivers of the growth of Russian actions. So at dnevkah Petroleum clearly visible the strong divergence with MACD and the potential short-term reduction of up to 70 dollars per barrel (at least) - there is support in the form of 21-periodnoy average.

on a weekly schedule S P500 index shows that we uperlis trend in resistance, and the index is unlikely to gain a higher level of 1000 points. Much more likely to decline in area 900 items, especially given the strong divergence of MACD and touch the top border strip Bollindzhera.

At dnevkah divergence even more explicit.

So, in my opinion, the risk adjustment of Russia's stock market down at the moment are high, especially if you consider the short term. The momentum of growth fading, and there are more and more willing to throw off the paper, fixed income, and shift to less risky assets. Possible objectives of reducing difficult to determine the different methods show different options. Strengths levels are 850 and 500 points on MICEX (falling by about 20.5% and 53% respectively). The second option seems overly pessimistic, but due to market volatility in recent times and a huge dependence on oil prices, and it can not be ruled out. The confirmation of the scenario will be the major indexes falling below the key medium for the day and weekly schedules.

The most affected stocks are likely to be oil and gas securities, as well as those companies that focus primarily on the domestic market. In my opinion, it is advisable to reduce long positions and, depending on market strategy, perhaps even open up short. This, however, mainly concerns the short-term speculators, as long as stock indices traded above the key medium.

The above scenario (with the fall in oil prices, U.S. and Russian stock indexes) will be accompanied by a sharp decline in the ruble against the euro and especially the dollar and the rise in market interest rates: returns of bonds, interbank lending, etc.

The probability of execution increases, and the fact that many line up waiting for a second wave of the crisis, and in August - the traditional month of the financial upheavals in Russia, increasing its foreign exchange position by selling shares, etc., thereby bringing a scenario, which is afraid of.

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