Foreign Exchange Market this month surprised bankers. Despite the fact that they predicted the beginning of the devaluation of hryvnia only the second half of September, it began a rapid decline since the beginning of August. During the four days - 3 to 7 August - natsvalyuty cash rate fell by 12 kopecks.: From 7,91 to 8,03 hrn. /$.

And last week, made a more dramatic leap: from 8,05 to 8,35 hrn. /$. The financiers give only one explanation for the fall hryvna: National Bank seriously reduce its intervention in the Interbank. NBU stopped regularly to sell dollars to banks as it did previously.

His

implemented under-the-counter only some finuchrezhdeniyam who still have the right to apply to the regulator for foreign. And they got Mizerov - up to 15-30% of the applications are many and it does not in sales - the head of the treasury of one of the banks. According to the financiers, most of the major banks are not even trying to buy dollars from the Office of Vladimir Stelmakh, as well and failed to bring in line with the requirements of their foreign exchange position of the NBU.

Recall that even the National Bank on July 28 sent a letter to Trust, which announced that it will not consider applications for the purchase of hard currency from finuchrezhdeny violating the notorious standard. Another reason for the shortage in the Interbank dollar - reducing his sentence. Exporters are not in a hurry to sell foreign currency proceeds to do so later at the higher rate, - said analyst bloc Treasury and Capital Markets, Alfa Bank (Ukraine) Alexander Vedeneyev. As a result, the demand for dollar in the Interbank last week just at 35-40% higher than the offer.

withdrawal from NBU Interbank today offer several explanations. It seems that central bank conducts the experiment again: almost completely excluded from currency trades, it tries to calculate how much can prosest course, if he wishes to increase savings reserves, which today is only $ 29 billion

At the same time it allows Cabinet подороже convert loans from the International Monetary Fund in the hryvnia, - noted the Head of Dealing a major bank. The important role played by arrangement with the IMF, which had objected to the active support NBU rate hryvnia. But if you have a National Bank such as opposed to this, it may be now it is stronger push , - has added his economist Concorde Capital investment company Andrey Parkhomenko.

In

National Bank has not yet been reported, when the governor will return to full-scale intervention. Officials strongly otkreschivayutsya challenges from currency: Deputy Head of NBU Alexander Savchenko last week said that the devaluation of hryvnia caused not by market preconditions, but the political, social and psychological instability in Ukrainian society.

The current course - this is the board population, ordinary Ukrainians for the chaos that we have in our country, - he said. In the office of Vladimir Stelmakh still hoping to be able to solve all the problems of administrative measures. August 10, NBU demanded trust in the system to confirm the arrangements for Interbank rates only for viable transactions.

Banks to carry out operations on the purchase or sale of non-cash foreign currency must be submitted to the PCA only topical application (which reflect the real needs of clients and the bank itself) with an indication of the real exchange rate, - said in a letter of NBU № 13-117/5268 -15060.

Officials believe that by doing so, they will be able to reduce the quotations on the non-cash market. In fact, sometimes it comes to the fact that the system confirm the agreements are not courses, which actually conduct transactions and quotes that only the claimed bank, which was not of operations. This is misleading the market and allows speculators to play the course - attributed to National Bank. August 11, in the order number 466, approving a plan of additional measures for the stabilization of the banking system, the NBU said that in September, will be restricted to cash foreign exchange market: the difference between the rate of purchase and sale of hard currency can not exceed 2%. Some financiers immediately started talking about the foreign exchange deficit in the exchanger, which can lead to innovation, because the banks will be profitable to work with such a margin.

However, the majority of DC experts still believe that the problems in the cash market in September will not be. This restriction is aimed at bringing order to the market, its aim - to streamline the workings of the existing market, and it does not lead to a shortage of foreign exchange. For example, at the rate of 8 grn. /$-Two per cent margin - it is 16 cents, and it is sufficient to the normal work of the cash market , - assured the head of the dealing bank Khreshchatyk Valery Doaga.

Financiers skeptical of innovations regulator. They sure make a difference in the currency market will only be able to resume large-scale interventions NBU in the Interbank. In this situation, experts predict that two versions of events.

If

National Bank will be the major hard currency sales, the cash hryvnia rate may revert to 7,9-8 grn. /$. Despite the growth of interbank quotations, the National Bank of Ukraine last week, did not seriously change the official rate, which by Friday was 7.75 grn. /$, So that the central bank dollar sales are waiting for 7,8-7,85 grn. /$. If the office of Vladimir Stelmakh will not sell the currency, the financiers may be reduced interbank rates to 8,8-9 grn. And cash - up to 9-9,2 grn. /$.

 

Elena Lysenko

At the Embassy of Poland awaiting issuance of cards full of Ukrainian citizens of the border area in September-October
Ukraine in 2009 may increase meat production by 5%
Good morning! Information Group Finam.ru and Investment Company FINAM welcome you to their site, and wish you good day!
United States: Correction has ordered a long time to live
Minregionstroy August 19, submit to the Government for approval a list of 37 nedostroev on 389 million UAH
Stock market of Ukraine on Tuesday has left at the side trend to close the small plus
Index MICEX today once again try to cling to the level of 1050, and with the support of an external background can go to the area of 1070
What happens in the world's site looks more like a technical rebound after two days of heavy falls
Paper neftyanki otskochat up both technical factors and the growth of prices for black gold