the beginning of the final quarter of 2009, the current state of Ukrainian economy can be described as fragile and unstable, with weighty arguments, as for medium-term and long-term optimism, there is a little bit.

for such pessimistic estimates, there are a number of objective reasons, the main ones being - lack of systemic reforms and the crisis is extremely energy intensive industries, resulting in most of the manufacturing sector will face the high cost of natural gas already in 2010-2011.

absence of significant energy efficiency programs, outdated technology and expensive gas make Ukrainian production uncompetitive.

Ukraine, which in 1980 ahead of Poland on all macroeconomic indicators, now has three times more GDP than in Poland, and thus consumes several times more gas.

No

gas prices did not care to us at present, if Ukraine were 10-15 years ago began to implement major energy conservation program, as all the while doing virtually the entire civilized world.

Of the current crisis, most countries have come up with new technology and new way of competitive economies, while Ukraine will have to go to the bankruptcy of most industrial enterprises that were created in the 50-80-years of the last century and characterized by outmoded production of the third order, and in the future will focus mainly on the development of agro-industrial complex.

Throughout the crisis period (which is more than a year), Ukrainian banks on the one hand is not able, on the other side and do not want tolend the necessary amounts of the real economy, that does not give Ukrainian producers with sufficient resources available for the normal upgrade and provoke further macroeconomic instability in the country.

situation in the Ukrainian economy compounded partly due to the fact that the objective and subjective reasons profile state institutions continue to set aside the accumulated problems of a systemic nature, either before the end of the presidential election, or in general to post-crisis period.

to continue cooperation with the IMF and receive the next tranche of foreign exchange in November, government and National Bank will continue to implement the reforms envisaged under the cooperation program with the IMF, on the eve of presidential elections in Ukraine, the Prime Minister, for obvious reasons not to hurry.

To pessimistic predictions about which so many economic experts say, is not justified to at least ensure that the manufacturing sector of the economy with long and relatively inexpensive credit resources, civilized way to stimulate the production and consumer demand for Ukrainian products, and must be achieved in Ukraine of at least medium-term macroeconomic stability.

Otherwise, the Ukrainian economy, while several neighborhoods in the doldrums, in 2010, will show very slight improvements, and the next three to four years will have a very weak capacity to reach the level of the previous pre-crisis pace of development.

Despite the decline in the first half of Ukrainian GDP by almost 20% and the monthly growth of the budget deficit, which by the end of the year will amount to not less than 50 milliard. (taking into account the financing of Euro 2012, the return of deposits in the state nationalized banks, the additional funds proposed for allocation to recapitalize the banking sector may be much larger), the government refuses to reconsider not only the state budget for the current year, balancing revenue and expenditure, taking into account current economic realities, but also offers unrealistic and unbalanced state budget for 2010.

With falling production by 30% already agreed between the Government and the IMF forecast to reduce GDP in 2009 at 14%, the growth of the shadow economy from 31% at the beginning of the year to 40% of GDP by the end of it (according to the official method of the Ministry of Economy) and over 50% - according to expert estimates, there are objective reasons for the reduction of tax revenues.

Nevertheless, the government refuses to cut social spending and the budget climbs to new debt, more than that stimulates the National Bank to publish unsecured hryvnia, which leads to the devaluation of its objective.

Ukrainian government officials in recent times has declared that the national economy successfully copes with the crisis and next year will show a positive trend in economic growth and to improve the basic macroeconomic indicators (inflation less than 10%, GDP growth is close to 4%, fiscal deficit not exceeding 5%). The situation at the currency market will stabilize, and the dollar exchange rate will be reduced to an annual average of 7,5 UAH. /$.

Such statements should be evaluated fairly kept, as a way to develop the economic situation in Ukraine in 2010 in terms of the probabilistic approach is not suitable for more realistic, but for the optimistic scenario, the probability is about 30% and it could not be realized, as well as the government forecast for 2009, when GDP growth is expected at 0,4%, with inflation at 9.5%.

more realistic, looks like an economic forecast, which in the next year the average dollar exchange rate will be in the range of 8-8,5 UAH. /1 $.

GDP growth in Ukraine is indeed possible in 3-5%, but not because of any systematic long-term anti-crisis activities, but because of the extremely low base ofcomparison.

In addition, in the case of discreet emission and debt policies by the Ukrainian government, the actual budget deficit by the end of 2010 will be at the level of 6-7%, while annual inflation is likely to be less than 12%.

And all of this will be possible only if Ukraine will remain relatively stable macro-economic and political conditions, including the National Bank will retain its independence, balance of payments is positive, and direct foreign investment will tend to increase .

If for the Ukrainian government in the budgetary process, priority will remain a populist approach, the national economy next year, also expects a severe test and an annual 3.5% GDP growth will be achieved, not because of improvements in manufacturing, construction or trade, and mainly due to high inflation, which exceeds 15%.

Thus the real budget deficit will amount to not less than 10%.

The following year, a lot of pressure on the exchange rate as well as overall macroeconomic stability will assist implementation of the agreements with the IMF to increase utility bills for the population (primarily natural gas, which by the end of 2010 should grow at least 2 -2,5-fold from current levels), a pension, social and tax reform.

In the current year until the month of May, the Government through the Ministry of Economy stated that the Ukrainian economy is developing in a normal mode and in the country are prerequisites for the implementation of basic indicators of the budget in 2009, including GDP growth of 0,4%, inflation less than 10%, and the collection of taxes and duties to the state treasury exceeded.

Despite the fact that most experts insisted earlier in the year that the optimistic scenario in Ukraine in 2009 will not be, and already in the first quarter of objectively present a huge contradiction between the budget parameters and the real economy, the economic profile of the ministry (Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Finance) refused to review the macroeconomic and fiscal performance.

Moreover after the economy in the first quarter shrank, more than 20%, the Government decided to fiscal and statistical information, just close to the real economic situation in the country did not know and, therefore, as little as possible about it said. But the lack of reliable information leads to wrong decisions, especially by businesses. But economic entities - is the basis which generates stability in the economy and ensures the implementation of the budget. And if economic agents do not have objective information, then making the wrong decision, companies spend an inefficient operations, have become unprofitable, and therefore will not be able to fill the budget planned by the same government taxes.

In 2010, acting as if the government did not want to be unable to collect taxes more than in 2009 because the fiscal authority has virtually exhausted all available legal avenue to oust taxes.

Continuing the same policies to strengthen tax pressure on the Ukrainian authorities, along with the existing big financial problems at the domestic enterprises and the unstable situation in the commodity and commodity markets, can bring the economy to collapse.

As a result, Ukraine may find itself in a state of economic ruin, when the money can be printed any number of many, but they will no longer be of no value to the real economy.

cost of resources - even in UAH - Ukraine remains unreasonably high at 30% per year, by the standards of the civilized world is an abnormal rate for a successful business.

Paradoxically, in this situation is that virtually no government wants to reduce the cost of resources in the country.

On the contrary, the Ministry of Finance is actively involved in the resources on the domestic market at a rate of 20-25% per annum or even higher, which is quite happy with the banks, which at minimum risks willingly buy Government Bonds and quite willing to lend to the real economy in less than 30% in year.

Overseas lending rates an order of magnitude below that allows you to stimulate both the production and consumption, ensuring economic growth and prosperity for the long period of time.

The absence of an affordable investment and credit funds in the real segment of the economy doomed the Ukrainian commodity producers lose their markets in the competition for the consumer.

Ukraine, all the years of independence, seeking to be export-oriented country, recently becoming more and more dependence on import.

Although it is an objective critique of excessive valyutizatsii our economy, Ukraine from year to year, giving up large-scale sectoral reforms, has already come to such a state that simply can not do without imports, as it is unable to produce the necessary quantity of high quality and competitive in comparison with foreign goods, products.

The sad thing is that in recent years, we even feed himself or herself can not, even though historically it is believed that Ukraine - a country with strong agrarian resources, able to feed not only its citizens, but all of Europe.

At present day we buy meat in Poland, sugar and oil - in Belarus, and fruits and vegetables, which could well produce themselves, brought from Turkey.

Thus, Ukraine, annually wasting their productive and competitive potential, is gradually becoming a domestic market for the neighboring states.

course, there are articles of critical import, without which the country is not objectively able to do in the future the next few years - such as nuclear fuel, medicine, high-technology equipment, etc.

order to refuse it, you need to either send their own funds for the organization of domestic production, or to create conditions for investors to come back to Ukraine with their resources and technology, rather than fleeing from it. However, this must be unpopular structural reforms not only in the fiscal environment and the economy, but especially in public administration, significantly reducing the level of corruption in the country, thus creating a good basis for a significant improvement in the investment climate, because while on the attraction for investors in Ukraine remains the end of the investment list.

soon to expect such structural changes can hardly because they were with us even more successful years - when the production and consumption grew, foreign trade balance was positive, the public was set up to civic change, and investors have shown increased activity and were ready to develop large-scale projects in our country.

In the next two years, most public funds will be directed to the preparation for holding in Ukraine of Euro 2012.

Therefore, neither municipal nor serious energy reform in the next few years will not be.

In addition, we have permanent elections, we need to appeal to voters. Unfortunately, in recent years in Ukraine was dominated by demagogy, populism, and those figures are frequently present their public officials are flawed and inadequate, leading to a drop in investment attractiveness of the country, a growing distrust of the representatives of Ukrainian authorities both within the country and beyond abroad and produce other serious problems systemwide.

In the currency market before the end of the year, it is unlikely that the rate of the currency pair hryvnia /dollar falls below 7,5 UAH. /$. However, the Ukrainian economy is unlikely to be able to stand and exchange rate over 9,5-10 UAH. /$ (The majority of Ukrainian borrowers simply can not service their foreign currency loans if the rate goes to the level of 9,5 UAH. /$ Or higher) .

Therefore, the most realistic scenario since the last in early September, the devaluation of the hryvnia to the passive level 9 UAH. /$, will be as follows:

National Bank - until the next tranche of the IMF, which is scheduled November 15 - will be more active regulatory and intervention policies to keep the exchange rate within the range 8,5-9,5 grn. /$. or even slightly lower than at the level of 8,0-9,0 grn. /$.

If the fourth tranche of the IMF, Ukraine will have time, then most likely before the end of the year hryvnia stabilized at 8.5 UAH. /$ (plus /minus 20-30 cents).

If the IMF would show the character and will insist on the implementation of the Government of Ukraine the majority of the agreements under the Memorandum of interaction even in the current year (eg, gas price hike for the population to 20%), while Tymoshenko's government refuses to conduct socio-fiscal reform before the elections, then continue to devalue the hryvnia.

Thus its price reduction will depend not only on the current balance of payments, but also successfully implemented by the end of the year crisis and anti-inflationary steps the Government, as well as the devaluation expectations of the population and economic entities.

If the loan tranche from the IMF did not arrive until late this year, UAH pressure of objective and subjective factors may indeed fall in price up to double digits, but most likely, to such a situation the financial situation, try not to bring neither the Ukrainian authorities, neither the IMF, and the hryvnia to the end of the year is unlikely to exceed the milestone 10 UAH. /$.

also internal and external economic factors of devaluation on the possibility of significant devaluation of the hryvnia in the medium term influences and foreign policy factor.

earlier this year between the governments of Ukraine and Russia signed a ten-year contract, according to which, the Ukrainian side has undertaken annually from Gazprom to buy at least 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

This year has already made statements on the head of the Ukrainian government Timoshenko, our country will be able to buy from Russia no more than 33 billion cubic meters of gas.

In such situation Ukraine is facing quite a serious and constant threat that in case of any disloyal action by the Ukrainian authorities against Russia's hand on the agenda of the Ukrainian-Russian relations once again will be the gas conflict, which can lead to including a substantial devaluation of the hryvnia.

Despite the fact that at the request of the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Prime Minister Russia, Putin promised not to bring a formal claim, and therefore the penalties, which under the terms of the underlying contract is 300% of the amount not withdrawn Ukraine's gas, Russia's President Medvedev continues to insist to Gazprom strictly fulfilled the conditions signed in January 2009, the gas contract.

Only on the basis of the current year shortfall of 7 billion cubic meters of gas, even without regard to punitive sanctions by Russia could cost the Ukrainian budget of about $ 2 billion (more than 17 billion UAH.) but in the case of fines exceed $ 5 billion (amount to 40-50 billion hryvnia).

Новый виток газовой войны может войти в практическую плоскость и перейти уже на экономический уровень, что приведет к катастрофическому бюджетному дефициту, который с учетом его существующей несбалансированности достигнет 100 млрд., а возможно и больше.

Прагматический подход российской администрации в реализации своих политических и экономических интересов в Украине будет вынуждать украинские власти расплачиваться за импортируемый газ расходуя золотовалютный резервы страны, которые и так изрядно истощены за последние два года и находятся под постоянным и пристальным контролем МВФ, который в том числе под условие их дальнейшей сохранности в во многом и согласился выдать Украине кредит в $16,5 млрд.

Если же валютные резервы страны правительство не захочет или не сможет использовать и будет дана команда включить печатный станок, украинская гривня по объективным причинам продолжит обесцениваться и вполне вероятно достаточно легко преодолеет психологический и одновременно критический для экономики рубеж в 10 грн./$, в частности если к эмиссионным факторам подключатся те же психологические девальвационные ожидания со стороны хозяйствующих субъектов и населения.

Поэтому в среднесрочной перспективе (на период ближайшего года) говорить о каких либо серьезных предпосылках к существенному укреплению гривни (ниже уровня в 7,5 грн./$), достаточно оптимистично.

В случае если среднегодовой курс в 2010 году будет находиться, даже на уровне 8-8,5 грн./$, а валютный рынок избежит резких курсовых всплесков в течение всего года, это уже станет очень существенным вкладом в нормализацию экономических процессов у нас в стране и создаст определенный базис для относительной среднесрочной макроэкономической стабильности, в том числе и производственного роста на перспективу.

В сентябре на биржевом рынке Украины наблюдался активный ценовой рост, составив в среднем только по голубым фишкам около 20%.

За период полугодичного роста цен на биржевые бумаги с марта текущего года украинские акции стали абсолютными мировыми лидерами по доходности, обеспечив рост индекса ПФТС с минимальных значений в марте к окончанию сентября почти на 188%, а индекса Украинской биржи - более чем на 212%.

Тем не менее, волатильность на украинском биржевом рынке остается на очень высоком уровне и до конца года у ликвидных украинских акций существуют практически равнозначные шансы измениться от текущих ценовых значений, как вверх, так и вниз на 20-50%, а фондовым индикатором еще прибавить или уже потерять 15-30%.

Сценарий по кардинальному изменению украинского ценового тренда в направлении падения станет особенно реальным, если на мировых биржевых рынках усилятся пессимистичные настроения, спекулянты начнут фиксировать прибыль, а фондовые индикаторы устремятся вниз.

Оценивая возможности того или иного варианта развития событий можно предположить, что с 30% вероятностью ценовой рост на украинские ценные бумаги продолжится и в итоговый квартал года, в таком случае к окончанию 2009 года индекс ПФТС может превысить 700 индексных пункта, а индекс Украинской биржи будет находиться выше 1700 индексных пункта.

С вероятностью в 30-40% возможна стабилизация цен на украинские бумаги на уже достигнутых уровнях.

В таком случае фондовые индексы уйдут в ближайшие два-три месяца в боковой тренд внутри индексного диапазона по индексу ПФТС в 500-650 индексных пункта, а по индексу Украинской биржи - 1200-1600 индексных пункта.

При возможной нисходящей коррекции мировых фондовых индикаторов индексная корзина ПФТС в зависимости от степени пессимизма и интенсивности продаж будет стремиться к значениям в 400-450 индексных пункта, а по индексу Украинской биржи уйдет на уровень поддержки в районе 1000 индексных пункта.

В целом до конца года я не ожидаю какого-то существенного роста торгового оборота на украинских биржах, и вряд ли среднедневные торги акциями совокупно по обеим биржам будут превышать 100 млн. грн.

Олег Морква. Генеральный директор КУА ИНЭКО-ИНВЕСТ

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