Russia market finally began to show at least some movement - which is a positive contrast with the first week after the long New Year holidays, when it seemed that market participants are increasingly focusing not trading well, for example, took place at the time of the tournament “Master” s ” Snooker Championship. But for too long a languid movement could not continue on Friday (as well as in Thursday) Russia has taken an active market reduction. this decline, we should say, we were paying for over-optimistic opening January 11 and a long reluctance to take into account the gradually deteriorating for two weeks, the external background.

In this picture, the current from the fundamental and technical perspective, the increasingly negative. Start with the fact that the price of oil to penetrate the level was $ 80 a barrel varieties Brent, and thus triggering the optimism of Russian investors, failed to gain a foothold at this level and is now traded in the $ 72-73 a barrel. The pressure on the price of oil, but doubts about the macroeconomy, has and continues to strengthen the U.S. dollar. Pair EUR /USD has traded in 1,41-1,42. Downtrend in the dollar was punctured last year and we believe that this fact in the end will have a negative impact on the cost of raw materials.

In addition, the important point is the passage down the DJIA index main long-term uptrend, which lasted from the beginning of 2009. This is yet another signal in favor of reduction.

On the other hand, we must recognize that Russia”s market often has a habit of long resisted external negativity before they recognize the need to reduce. Yes, and after penetration of the uptrend for the DJIA, we can see a rebound to a broken trend upward, which is also capable of supporting long quotations. In addition, the reduction of oil is not yet extreme.

Thus, we can state the following: the situation is gradually deteriorating, and we believe that the threat of a serious decline is increasing. However, the market will certainly resist this reduction is strong enough, and we can still see the impressive rebounds quotes up. Technically, to determine the1000future direction of motion is important to retain the MICEX index level of 1400 points - an area of resistance, blasted the New Year gepom, to which we returned last Friday. Theoretically hold above this level will signal for further growth and breakdown it down - the negative symptom of an impending correction.

Today

The world”s leading markets declined Friday: German DAX -0,90%, Britain”s FTSE -0,60%, DJIA -2,09%. Asian markets this morning, declining, while Japanese Nikkei225 shows -0,74%. Futures on the S P500 demonstrate change to 0,56%.

Pair EUR /USD is in the € /$ 1,4160, and USD /JPY - in $ /#165; 90,28. Gold is worth $ 1.100,97 per troy ounce, silver - $ 17.16 per troy ounce, copper - $ 7,347, and nickel - $ 18,290 per metric ton.

Yields for UST-2 0,82; for UST-10 3,63.

Oil prices over the past 48 hours rose $ 0.98 to $ 72.98 per barrel varieties Brent.

At 15.00 GMT in the U.S. are data on housing sales in the secondary market for December (Existing Home Sales, forecast 5.90M, change -9.80%).

At 15.30 GMT will index the Dallas Fed”s manufacturing activity in January (Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity, forecast 6,00%).

So, today we are waiting for lower quotations in early trading - with the possible setback up in the afternoon.

MICEX (Daily):

Americans do not earn their banking accounts

largest U.S. banks over the last quarter of 2009 was worse than forecasts …

Asian stocks cheaper 6-th session in a row
U.S. index showed the greatest three-day decline since March, but rising futures
The level of support for the RTS Index futures for today - 146 100
A certain recovery rate of EUR /USD lost in the last days of positions in the near future to continue
In the case of turning the market may return to earlier levels as quickly as it fell
Today, despite the positive expectations for the placement of Rusal, is expected to continue sales in the steel sector
Today, the bull has a chance of a transition to the consolidation and subsequent testing of an important level of 1,415 points
The probability that the downward correction of the market of Russia will stop at the current levels, markedly reduced