At the appetites of Ukrainian crisis will not affect. Anyway, at this point of tax data: January-June 2009 revenue of trade rose by 4.8% (up to 175 billion hryvnia) in comparison with 2008 year. Day experts said, is whether our fellow citizens to prepare for the unexpected price for the food market in the second half of 2009.

Oil

Because of the reduction in domestic stocks and a seasonal increase in demand might appreciate Lenten oil in bottles. But growth will be modest: a maximum of 5%, says the director of Pro Agro Nikolai Vernitsky. The expert believes that producers will not be able to disperse in the price, because it is already too high. Oils in bottles, which buys the vast majority of consumers today is 9 hryvnia with kopecks per liter. A unbottled raw butter - 5 hryvnia.

difference in the entire 4 hryvnia expert explains the large trade allowances and the cost of storing products in warehouses. Moreover, the manufacturers of high-cost insured against fluctuations in commodity prices (for raw oil). Thus, we get quite high, but stable prices in the retail oil in bottles, - said Vernitsky … In contrast, stable retail prices for oil in bottles, the price of crude (Ukraine it mainly exports) are constantly fluctuating. Now there is a tendency to reduce its cost, because the collection is approaching the new crop, as world demand fell, - explains further Vernitsky. If now the wholesale price of crude oil 5 200-5 300 hryvnia per ton, then by October it will be reduced to 4 500 hryvnia , said the expert.

Sugar

Today, in this market fervently, but in mid-October, the situation will change, - predicts the ex-head of directors of the company Sugar Union Ukrros Alexei Krutibich. By the fall of wholesale prices for white gold still rise from the current 5 150 — 5 200 hryvnia per ton, up to 5 500 hryvnia. However, in September will begin to work sugar refineries, which in two months will give the market to 1.5 million tons of sugar. In this year's first sugar mills will begin to sell sugar at a loss. And October will be peak months of falling prices. Because the plants that are planning to work further and inNovember, had to pay a subscription for gas. And about 20 October in the wholesale market established the lowest price , - says the Day professional observations Krutibich.

According to him, the wholesale price at the peak of the fall is likely to fall to 4 000 hryvnia per ton of sugar. Retail products are also added to this amount for another 15 -20%. That is, if the wholesale kilo of sugar would cost 4 hryvnia, then he gets to the consumer at a price of 5 - 5.05 UAH, Krutibich counts. After payment of the gas producers will hold the sugar stocks until December, when the price goes up again.

Milk

But fans of dairy expects trouble. After the summer is traditionally milkman would face a certain shortage of raw materials for production. Prices on a rise to 30%, or 70 cents, says ex-director Shostinskogo molkombinata Larissa Rudakova. This is immediately reflected on the value of their products. Thus, locally produced cheeses went up by 10 - 30%. Most grow in the price of the elite, such as Radomer, but propionic group. If autumn milk deficit exceeded all expectations milkman, then at the end of 2009, prices could jump again, because the milk of all plants are not enough and everyone will try to give the manufacturer a great price.

While the Vernitskogo, large price increases would not. When our manufacturers have begun to produce valuable animal oil, then immediately started to bring in Ukraine or peasant spreads oil from Belarus. This stopped the growth of prices in the domestic market for dairy products, - he said, adding that high prices will automatically be held back by cheaper imports .

Bread

If

dairy products went up, the bread to butter - no, I'm sure the Day in the industry association bakers. Based on the current crop and the price situation in the grain market, it can be expected that with the cost of flour will not be problems, - said President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers Volodymyr Slabovsky. - The only question, how much energy will cost and what will be inflation.

If

increase the cost of gas and electricity, the cost of bread, not grow. But the price will rise the rest of the bread: yeast, sugar, butter … If inflation will remain in the current framework, and if the gas would not get up until the end of 2009, while prices for bread will be stable, - sums up Slabovsky. Problems may arise in 2010, because 30 per cent credit bakers are not buying into their new harvest grain storage.

Meat

breeders are not very happy to provide price forecasts for the second half of 2009. Thus, according to the chairman of the Board of Directors of the Association Union of Poultry Farmers of Ukraine Alexander Bakumenko difficult to predict, because they do not understand the macro-economic indicators, is not known what will happen to the dollar, and what will the purchasing power of people. Now prices have fallen because the country has a large number of low-quality imports at low prices, which simply destroys domestic producer prices … does not even cover the cost of the Ukrainian meat production, - возмущается it.

If the pace will be to deliver the meat, then in 2-3 years even destroy their industry - outlines the prospects for the industry in these developments the general director of Tvarinprom Sergey Gnatiuk. - We will not remain their production of meat, and will rely only on imports.

In the second half of 2009, according to him, the price situation with meat can remain at current levels. While this balance will be entirely dependent on imports. According to Gnatyuk now prices are falling for the products of almost all manufacturers of meat products. A little better feel of pork producers, the cost of production of which started to grow. But whether this trend will continue in the future, hard to judge. After all, the price increase for pork is not observed throughout the country, said Gnatiuk. For example, in central Ukraine and the Kiev area prices, by contrast, are falling.

Wine

will not fall, but will not increase prices for domestic wines, - says the Day the first deputy general director of Ukrvinproma Vladimir Kucherenko. Given the crisis and the decrease in purchasing power producers, by contrast, will try to hold down prices in those categories in which they operate today, - explains Kucherenko. And while world prices, in principle, can grow to 5 - 10%, while production costs - increase, but the Ukrainian enterprises want to seek other ways to save than by the client. For example, the savings offered on marketing expenses and cost of raw materials. All the more so that the latter, according to preliminary projections, the 2009 will be no less than in the past (then collected 350 thousand tons).

I will not raise the price of the wine and did not make it to November 2008, when the crisis began, - says Day of Head of the Odessa cognac plant Robert Guliev. - This was a competitive advantage, as compared to wines from Chile and Argentina, which were sold prior to the crisis in our price category. But more expensive wines on the market is still possible, he said. Imported wines have grown in value by 35 - 40%, and it will vary in the future, depending on the exchange rate, - predicts winemaker. According to him, the border price fluctuations overseas wines - 10%. Domestic same wine will be kept at its current price point. An exception may be shmurdyaki (produced with the addition of sugar, alcohol and other ingredients inappropriate guilt), if the major wine prolobbiruyut in Parliament a bill on indifikativnyh prices for wine. Then the price shmurdyakov will grow from 9 hryvnia per liter to 13 hryvnia.

Vodka

vodka producers also will not suffer the price of the patience of consumers. Vodka went up only by the amount of excise tax, which recently raised the parliament, said the Day the first deputy head of the Ukrspirt Vitaliy Sosnitsky. Cost is the main ingredient of vodka - alcohol will not grow, he said. Because the price of corn (raw materials for alcohol) low.

Vegetables and Fruits

But fruits and vegetables should not appreciate. They even podesheveyut argue interviewed Day experts. This, according to experts, this contributes to a good harvest for vegetables and fruit garden …

Natalia Bilousova

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