Inspired electoral battles, we almost forgot that in the world and in Ukraine is still not set a final point in regard to the financial and economic crisis and overcome its consequences. One way or another, but immediately after the inauguration of the new president will have to pay due attention to economic issues.

its recommendations to the new president, regardless of who they will be given: Head of Analysis and Forecasting Center for Strategic Initiatives Vladimir Stus, executive director of the International Fund blazer Oleg Ustenko, director general of the Bureau of Economic and Social Technologies Valery smooth and Director of the Department of Sociology Research Foundation of Public Safety Yuri Gavrilechko.

Vladimir Stus: In the next five years the crisis will go beyond the economic framework

“The quality of governance of the future president will be directly dependent on how he envisions the process of forecasting. What was the quality of prediction, we have seen in the forecast that the economic crisis will not affect Ukraine. Now we hear the prediction that Ukraine will start to emerge from the crisis in the second half of 2010. By definition, good governance can not be higher than the error of prediction. In this regard, we now have a complete zero, a complete meltdown.

scientific concept shown to be untenable. It is now evident that the crisis has escalated the scope of mortgage first, then financial. Now he gradu1000ally grows beyond economic. Need some concept to understand how things will develop further. This is not a single concept.

scientific knowledge of this area is gone. Virtually all scientists have become experts. What distinguishes the expert knowledge from the scientific? Instead, the interpretation of events based on certain concepts, expert, specializing in two or three directions, has only this topic. For other areas it can not own information. So willy-nilly any expert goes on omissions. It is your industry position is considered the most specific, and the rest - on existing stereotypes. It works in a branch-wide for a short period of time, but once we get on a fundamental shift more general nature, expert opinion stops working. We are now witnessing terrible mismatch is expected. This is not the problem of those experts - a problem of this method.

were correct forecasts of the crisis, but they were predictions of economists, these were industry forecasts. They worked and justified as long until the crisis was within the economy. Now we are witnessing the expansion of the crisis, beginning his economic framework, and these projections do not work.

according to my earlier forecast that we are now witnessing a crisis - is not a crisis, but a prelude to the troubled times, to the time civilization shocks, which will last decades. Here the most interesting prediction would Forecast: happens when the transition from the predominance of the economic component of the crisis in the beginning of the crisis for the economic framework? On the one hand, is something that is impossible to predict directly. But you can judge this by circumstantial evidence. Time limits - the next five years. As the date approaches occasion on which he may happen to be at all times to decrease. The closer we approach that date, the more shallow reason could provoke a crisis out of the economic framework. It is possible that it will be before 2015.

crisis came from outside of Ukraine. Former socialist countries has long sat in this crisis, we have the time came in 1991. Several behind us on the stage of civilization cycle modern developed countries - they are now on the eve of his 1991. They will pull the other group of countries - the new developing countries: China, Southeast Asia, in many ways the Middle East.

Nothing new has been invented. Besides, what came to post-Soviet countries, largely for the same reasons now fit and other countries. ”

Oleg Ustenko: The worst is now over. Ahead - Turbulent Future

“On the whole Ukrainian system will be in a state of turbulence, but it will evolve in the same vector. What can we expect from 2010-2011,” We can not wait to see what the real sector will be vigorously developed. We expect that in 2010 the Ukrainian economy may show growth of 3-4%. In 2011, in the absence of reforms, we also expect growth in the order of 3-4%, maybe even 2%. This lack of height.

Why the lack of growth? Cause for a country to maintain its social programs to fight poverty, it is necessary to show growth of about 5%.

new administration one way or another will face the problem of what is necessary to enter the pre-crisis levels. Otherwise, many social programs, many of the problems that exist in society, simply can not be resolved. It will be a huge problem.

On the other hand, there is a clear understanding that whatever the ambitious reform package in one or another administration, the package can continue to be ambitious, at least for next three years. Ie For three years you can make some changes, but do enormous systemic changes will be extremely difficult in a number of reasons. This gives me reason to believe that the real sector will evolve, but within 5%, which clearly is not enough to d1000rastically change the situation. It will not change due to the fact that something done in the country, but rather due to the fact that he begins to reorganize the global economy.

Our exports will begin to reorganize, but the prices for metallurgy and chemistry is not reached pre-crisis level. Thus, the export will be the driving force behind the development of the real sector, but not so serious, that could bring the country to new horizons of development.

Regarding the banking sector. Yes, 2009 was supposed to be a formidable challenge not only for the real sector, but also for the banking sector. Banks still not resolved a problem with confidence. Confidence has been lost. Consumers, households simply businesspersons confused.

begin some movement, and, in developed countries, these shifts in consumer behavior are much faster than in Ukraine. In the U.S., for example, are constantly spend, spend, spend money and had a negative savings rate, show a positive savings rate. France and Germany are beginning to save more and spend less. In Ukraine, everything happens as if nothing unusual had happened, consumers did not yet bearings, and only now we see the first signals that the end of the third - early in the fourth quarter of 2009, consumers began to change their behavior. Ie adaptation to the crisis was quite slow.

I would expect that 2010 will be continued consumer response to the crisis - we will see that consumers will be even more cautious than they were in late 2009. In 2011, they will be hard to make them spend money that, in general, it would be a good moment - a waste of money would mean the opportunity to recharge the real economy.

same thing I would expect from the banks. Confidence is not restored. As much as we talk about what you can change the head of the Central Bank, may be plenty to talk about what can be done here, a small reform here, but this does not solve the problem of the return of trust as quickly as we wish. So in 2010 we will observe the processes associated with the fact that any administration will try to restore the confidence of the banking system and generally in their institutions.

problems with the budget will continue in 2010 for sure. Obviously, it is necessary, on the one hand, try to optimize costs, on the other hand, must somehow get additional revenues in the budget. All this is superimposed on the fact that the real sector shrank, he can no longer pay such amounts that it paid earlier in the form of taxes. He himself must nurture, support. From this point of view I would expect that the fiscal situation would be enormously difficult throughout 2010 and will begin to show some serious signs of recovery, most likely in 2011.

In terms of growth of our national debt - unlikely to Ukraine is going to appear on the world markets to borrow money. But the most likely problems with the fiscal situation, the difficulty with the budget in some way make a new Ukrainian administration - any administration - to apply not only to the IMF, but anyway there will need to go to international markets for borrowing money. Most likely, at the end of the first quarter of this year - early in the second quarter of 2010 we will see the Ukrainian government in international markets in London, New York, trying to borrow from half a billion to a billion dollars. Because the money would be simply disastrous needed.

next peak, when they do this kind of borrowing, I would have expected at the end of the third - the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. On the other hand, will try to find alternative sources of funding. In addition to the IMF and the possibility of selling our Eurobond, will try to find money in some other countries. I think it will develop the capability to borrow money in Russia.

Summing up, I say that in principle, the deepest part of th1000e crisis has passed. We are reconfiguring the whole organism. How long does it take? By the end of this quarter, maybe slightly more, but the organism to migrate. This is already evident. For two or three quarters in a row we show industrial growth. Industry will gradually revive, formed a new administration - all the same, what the administration - but it sends a positive signal to foreign investors. If there is no talk about re-privatization, which could frighten foreign investors and domestic investors, including, we expect the inflow of foreign investment.

On the other hand, banks will have problems, but the big banks to revive lending will - gradually, in small portions, but lending will increase, thus, in general, have a positive impact on the real economy, and part of the population.

The worst has passed. Ahead - a turbulent future “.

Valery Smooth: The situation is quite complicated. What happens next? We”ll see in a week

“We agree with the fact that the bottom of the crisis, we may have passed, but drove the economy in the state, when they were critical points that affect the future prospects.

the day before yesterday I met with representatives of the largest investment companies in Europe and the United States, who can say, are “low start” and think about how to invest in Ukraine or not. They were especially worried about what will happen to the exchange rate. The exchange rate they see as already a finite derivative for all the problems, which in their opinion, remain in the economy.

If you look at the main macro indicators of Ukraine and its immediate neighbors, then we - the deepest downturn of the economy - about 14% - is twice more than the regional average. Compression of credit to the private sector at 2.3%, while in other countries there was a small, but still growing. A very sharp increase in the debt burden on the economy. The huge fiscal deficit - 10% of GDP. Above average regional inflation - 15,9% against 6,7% in Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation and Turkey. The share of “toxic” assets on the balance sheet of the banking sector, we have estimated at 27,2%, while the regional average in the banking sectors of these countries is only 9,4%.

In my opinion, the main thing that will need to make a new administration - is to restore the confidence of business and people within the country and the confidence of investors outside the country. From the president and the coalition in Parliament would be required to show at least some point, but all the same steps that will give a quick positive result.

from the international community from the new administration expected the removal of critical issues. The main problem - it is quasi-fiscal deficit of Naftogaz and the Pension Fund. The main problem - this loss of Naftogaz. This will require unpopular decisions to raise gas tariffs.

If Tymoshenko becomes president, the current government remains in place, requires no removals, you can take acceptable to the International Monetary Fund budget in which the budget deficit will be reduced due to the fact that the losses of Naftogaz will be reduced by increasing the gas tariff . This is an unpopular decision, but any government will take it. This is only a matter of time.

If the president becomes Yanukovich, the situation is more complicated, because it does not yet have a stable support in parliament. You can talk about forming a coalition situational, but the coalition is fragile, and there is no guarantee that this fragile coalition could quickly form a government, which quickly propose a real budget, decide to minimize the impact of higher gas tariffs for the1000population so as not to cause social upheaval and not create a movement towards regression.

will not discuss what was right and wrong in the relations with the IMF last year, but the main leitmotif of the following: the money used, but did nothing to reduce dependence on external financing. This task is postponed to 2010. And this government will have to find some balance between the need to increase investment in the economy, solve the problems of the banking sector and the problems of social protection.

Of these three problems can be solved relatively quickly the problem of rehabilitation of the banking sector and lending to resume. Everything you need for this already exists. In August last year adopted a law on financial rehabilitation of banks, enabling quick decisions on mergers, acquisitions in the banking sector.

new government will have something to do with capital investment. They are reduced to a minimum. You see what happens with the cleaning of streets, what happens to the roads, what happens to the heating mains. Here, the new government, the new president will have to do something, at least to start early structural reforms. It will be necessary to make decisions about the launch of the private sector, because objectively have no budget funds to maintain all this infrastructure afloat.

In the banking sector will have to unlock lending and restrain the appetites of the budget, which now simply exorbitant. In fact, the budget absorbs all of the banking sector by 26% per annum. Companies can not afford to borrow under such interest. On the one hand, the budget should moderate their appetites. On the other hand, I think, and the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and the European Union will defend the idea of the need to increase central bank independence and defining its purpose: no exchange rate stability and price stability.

With regard to price stability, the new government, this problem will get inherited. Although inflation has been reduced from 22% to 16% of the annual measurement, however, inflation in the current year will remain high. Postponed the decision to increase tariffs because of the essential commodities have risen in price more than the basic inflation. Core inflation was squeezed against increase of tariffs for gas, and LCF.

This government will have to make decisions that will not give quick results, but in the long run lead to the social protection of the most vulnerable populations. The new government will need to run large-scale reform in the system of social protection. At least take steps in the creation of the registry recipients of social benefits and take some more steps to support the Foundation for the monetization of these benefits. Reducing the list of benefit recipients, those who objectively were not entitled to them because of their level of income.

In general, I think the situation is quite complicated. Everything will depend on how stable the coalition will be formed in parliament and how quickly and accurately coalition and the president will work. Also, how well would interact National Bank and the Ministry of Finance. If this is not, then these early signs of stabilization have disappeared as quickly as it arose.

Exports as a sustainable source of economic growth in Ukraine can not trust. Export vulnerable to external demand conditions in prices, the influence of trade wars. In addition, we should not forget that our core sectors need investment. В противном случае они будут становиться все более и более неконкурентоспособными, их потенциал экономического роста постепенно будет уменьшаться. Такие преимущества были в 1998 году, когда Украина получала дешевый газ, но сейчас Украина покупает газ по мировым ценам. Поэтому простая девальвация, помощь экспортерам имеет очень ограниченное воздействие. Необходимо искать другие источники роста -1000это и экспорт, и инвестиции, и поддержка внутреннего спроса, но чтобы этот спрос не трансформировался в рост импорта, который является фактором дестабилизации.

Что будет дальше? Посмотрим через неделю, насколько быстро завершится президентская гонка, насколько быстро стороны согласятся с выбором избирателей, насколько быстро пройдет процесс изменения расстановки сил в парламенте.

Юрий Гаврилечко: 2010 год станет “плато стабилизации”

“Я бы хотел сконцентрироваться на тех возможных рисках, которые могут нас ожидать в 2010 году. Во-первых, выборы будут влиять еще почти полгода. На что именно они будут влиять? Сейчас налицо ситуация с дефолтом городов - невыплата в местных общинах по счетам обладминистраций, городских госадминистраций, потому что правительство эти деньги тратит на пенсии, затыкает какие-то другие дыры. Такая проблематика будет актуальна еще, по крайней мере, месяца три. Ситуация будет ухудшаться не потому, что кто-то лично в этом виноват, а потому, что есть системные проблемы, которые решаются за счет постоянного потока средств.

Не стоит забывать, что в любой ситуации, кто бы там ни стал президентом через неделю, правительство будет работать в этом самом составе по меньшей мере еще месяц. Потому что коалиция не формируется за один день, инаугурация не происходит в один день. Месяц-два будет еще то же самое правительство, оно будет очень существенно влиять на принятие решений и на любую работу.

Что будет интересного дальше? У нас есть определенные проблем с газом. Я не согласен с тем, что повышение цен для населения что-то решит, потому что в общей структуре расчетов населения - это 12-13%. Даже если в два раза повысить цены, то это больше, чем те же 10-12% не даст. Это не решит проблему. Это своеобразный миф, но этот миф будет достаточно широко подогреваться теми же структурами - международными, экономическими. Им это очень выгодно, ведь чем больше грабят население, тем проще управлять на макроуровне. Чем богаче народ, тем сложнее давать кредиты, которые тогда вообще станут не нужны.

Что касается газа - это действительно проблема, потому что как раз в декабре в уставном фонде “Нафтогаза” количество ОВГЗ увеличилось еще на 13 миллиардов гривен. Скорее всего, именно за счет выкупа Национальным банком этих долговых обязательств правительства в январе рассчитались за газ. Что будет дальше? Уже в общем смысле более 30 миллиардов уставного фонда “Нафтогаза” - это долговые обязательства правительства. Чем дальше будем рассчитываться? Трудно сказать.

Относительно инфляции. Обама предложил дефицит бюджета почти в 2 триллиона долларов, то есть, скорее всего, будет развиваться именно инфляционный сценарий, и он, безусловно, зацепит Украину.

Идущие сюда инвестиции могут улучшить ситуацию. Но это улучшение не будет достаточно длительным, потому что деньги не решают всех проблем. Уважаемые, на новых предприятиях, которые будут построены за инвестиционные средства, должен кто-то работать. Чтобы человек там работал, его должны научить, то есть система образования должна быть ориентирована на новую систему производственных отношений. Этой системы нет.

Что касается роста ВВП - вероятнее всего, это будет 2-3%, но, на мой взгляд, не за счет того, что возрастет именно производство, а за счет ценового фактора.

Поэтому 2010 год вряд ли станет годом улучшения. Скорее всего, это будет определенное плато стабилизации. Ð’ нашей стране это плато стабилизации будет очень зависеть от того, каким образом решится вопрос политической стабильности. Если после второго тура нас могут ожидать судебные решения, третий тур или, например, будущий президент, будет не в состоянии достаточно быстро заручиться поддержкой коалиции, проблемы, будут исходить из того, что инвестиционный климc64ат останется “холодным”, деньги сюда не пойдут. За счет собственных ресурсов - мы спорили относительно инвестиционного сценария развития экономики - вряд ли это сможет сделать этот президент, кто бы это ни был. Соответственно, нет ресурсов - ни человеческих, ни финансовых - для улучшения ситуации. At least not yet.

Но если будет политическая стабильность, то такие средства можно будет привлечь извне. Ð’ подобном случае их можно проесть, а можно использовать для того, чтобы осуществить некоторые системные изменения”.

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