probability of a technical rebound is great, but for the medium-term growth needs new ideas

The Russian stock market looks like today is unstable. Current guidelines do not give a reason for growth. Sales entered into a technical correction, but the preconditions for a substantial reduction is already beginning to accumulate. The main focus for the Russian market today futures for the index S P500, showing negative momentum. It is possible that the American market will continue downward correction after the break the day before.

The main concern today is the commodity market, namely the dynamics of black gold. Futures oil brand Brent zalegli in lateral trend in anticipation of the disclosure of oil and petroleum products the United States. The publication of data may cause significant fluctuations in the curtain after the auction bezydeynoy session. The data, announced the American Petroleum Institute for oil, showed a decrease of 6 million barrels, which supported the quotes of black gold prior to opening on the Russian market. Thus, it is possible that the data on the stocks will be better forecasts, which will rebound in the first place in the shares of oil and gas sector.

In the session, shares of landmark papers of Russian market, such as Gazprom and LUKoil, are traded at the level of support. Shares Lukoil look more attractive for shopping, because pereprodannost shares of the issuer's above. Paper Lukoil, and Gazprom, are consolidated near the lower limits of top-down trend. Of Perforation down these supports will be a negative signal to market participants. However, after a significant reduction (shares data mining companies desheveyut fourth sessions) is likely a technical rebound. Also in favor of rebound showed outstanding down the gap, formed on Monday at the opening of the tenders. Probability of rebound high, so I recommend using short-term upward movement to close long. Thus, the finish of today's session could get interesting speculative.

If you talk about a long-term trends, the market participants have not yet decided on further movement. For push-up should be the emergence of new growth drivers. While in the Russian market to return the positive sentiment in the market fairly easily, but if you factor in the growth does not appear in the near future, the bear sentiment in the market may finally take root. In particular, push for further action tomorrow on an application for unemployment benefits in the United States, as well as indexes of business activity and leading indicators.

Worse emerging markets is the Chinese market, which showed a further significant Drawdown on the index, which has become one of the factors for the change of sentiment in the Russian market. However, the overall dynamics of the emerging markets have not yet demonstrated the release of large investors. Thus, current sales are only speculative, as also evidenced by low volumes. MICEX Index is near the level of support for 1015 points, which is able to suspend the sale. The purpose of the index is still closing gepa Monday, because if the market wants to calm down, then this goal in an area of about 1070 points still need to implement.

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