Obama all spoiled the mood
Today”s top trading on Russia”s stock market, with the negative external environment was predictably pessimistic about 1% below yesterday”s close. In the future, with the opening of European stock pads most of the Russian chips increased the slope of a motion vector vniz.V conditions overheated after several days of explosive growth in the beginning of the year, Russia”s market closer to noon adjusted growth rate. At 15:14 Moscow time, Russia”s main indicators of the market, the MICEX and RTS indices, are traded in negative territory, hour after hour effort to reduce rates. RTS Index on the background of some of the increased pressure on the ruble of the U.S. dollar is slightly worse than the MICEX index losing 2.93% (1485 n). MICEX ruble index when it is reduced only to 2.63% (1398 on). Bidding for the ocean today, probably also start declining. Dynamics of contracts for difference on an index Dow Jones, which is an indicator of investor sentiment at the opening, shows a moderately negative dynamics, predicting a loss of 52 on, or 0,3%. Yesterday”s trading as Ocean culminated in the collapse of major indexes: Dow Jones has lost 2,011%, to close at around 10,389.88 forth a broad market indicator S P500 fell slightly less, at 1,894%, while its value at the close was 1116.48 p.
Quotations black gold, continue to adjust the second week in a row of marks above 80 dollars per barrel on rising stocks in the U.S. and reduce the fear of weather forecasters on the climatic situation in Europe and the United States. Current value of oil futures to near expiration, the Brent-WTI y and are, respectively, had 74.36 dollars /barrel and 75.75 dollars /barrel, about 1 USD is lower than yesterday”s closing of Russia”s market.
As quotations Russian “blue chips”, then at 15:22 Moscow time, Russia”s main most liquid stocks exhibit extremely negative dynamics. The least popular today enjoy the following “blue chips”: preferred shares, Sberbank lost 4.74% (67.35 USD), “VTB” 3,5% (0.0716 USD), Rosneft 2,93% (249 , 50 rub).
little better than the rest look like “blue chips”: shares of Lukoil lost 2.27% (1662 USD), Sberbank 2.78% (86.70 USD), “Norilsk Nickel” 2,57 % (4777 USD).
In January, the prospects in 2010 look like a moderately positive. Although quite adequate assessment of the emerging markets, against a background of extremely low interest rates in Europe and the United States, as well as the gradual recovery of the real sector of the economy, we expect continued growth on the equity market. However, note that the market growth potential is not so high as at the beginning of 2009 within the most likely, in our opinion, forecast, Russia”s stock market could add about 35% during 2010 with a target level at year-end 1850 pm on RTS index. The main risk to Russia”s market during 2010, we consider the possible curtailing of government support measures of the economy in the United States and Western Europe, which can be expressed in the reduction of quantitative measures of support and increase interest rates if inflationary pressures rise in the economy. However, we note that the probability of folding antikrizinyh programs in developed economies is low during the first half of 2010, as global economic growth now looks still very shaky.
However, yesterday”s tough statement by Obama on the need to tighten controls in the banking sector inspire panic in the hearts of investors, triggering a massive sale on stock markets around the world. Let me remind you that Barack Obama strongly criticized the strategy of the largest U.S. commercial banks to ease the financial crisis exclusively from high-risk operations in the financial markets. According to the President of the United States, banks are rebuilding their positions at the expense of state support measures by the same means that have led to the crisis. As required for adoption of measures to counteract these policies Obama called the need for a maximum strip market share to commercial banks in the United States, as well as restrictions on the implementation of high-risk transactions in financial markets.
In these conditions, we recommend the elimination of speculative positions in the segment of “blue chips”. Now in this segment, we recommend to keep a portfolio of speculative positions only on the shares “Sberbank” and preferred shares of Transneft. With respect to shares of companies of the second tier, in this segment, we remain, remain positive outlook on the long-term prospects for equities of small and mid-cap, with a stable business model and a low debt load and recommend long-term hold positions in the shares of such issuers. Among them we note the stocks with the highest, in our opinion, the potential growth on the horizon of 1-2 years: “Mostotrest”, “Asha Metallurgical Plant”, “WGC-2″, “MRSC of the South”, “Severstal”, “Ammofos” prefecture “Transneft”, “Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant, prefecture Rostelecom prefecture Apatit, Belon, prefecture” Tatneft “,” Aeroflot “. Possible temporary decrease in stock price of these companies we see as a convenient excuse for the resumption of long-term purchases.
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