Today, we look forward to the opening of trading below the previous closing levels on the equity market.

On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by pessimism among market participants, despite upbeat GDP data for the 4 quarter.
So GDP in the fourth quarter totaled 5.7% against the forecast 4.7%, however, in general, due to higher stocks in warehouses in the hope of further sale.
also worth noting that in January 2010 was closed in the red, and the first 5-Th trading sessions in positive territory, thereby repeating the situation in 2009. Who will win this year?

At the end of the trading session U.S. stock indices closed in the red /Dow Jones -0.52%, S P500 -0.98%, NASDAQ -1.45% /.

From a technical point of view, on Friday the Dow Jones index at the beginning of the trading session tested the upper limit of downward flag, after which the index set a new local minimum of 10044.66 points in the formation of the 5th wave. The lower boundary of the flag in the area of 10060 points and was able to provide good support. A weekly schedule is closed in favor of “bears”, and a month - falling star, which in February to confirm. This week, after the formation of the 5th wave is allowed correction of the fall and rebound against the euro bucks, where the maximum to reduce the under 1-second pulse appears mark 1.3645-1.3650 and 1.385.

remind that the Dow Jones index form 5 wave decline down in the 1-second pulse. After his graduation bulls will be adjusted every drop of 23.6% -50% of Fibonacci. To do this, “bykam” should pierce 10238 points and 10044 to keep the item.

At the same time on the MACD indicator is a triple “bullish” divergence, it is therefore likely that in the 5th wave, bounce protection could be the 2nd subvolnoy, then began on 3-th subvolna to 9940 points, but while this option is unlikely need a smashing figure.

Today, the level of resistance for the market participants will mark 10220 and 10270 points and 10315 points. Level of support would be 10050 points.

Local fractal purchase is on the mark of 10729.89 and 10285.13 points, but on sale at the mark of 9786.11 points.

On the hourly chart of the MACD indicator divergence formed, and the indicator Stochastic”s in buying.

On the daily chart the Dow Jones index also remained divergent boundary formation in the 10250 points, but the point of confirming the change stood at 9430.31 and 9684 points, which is far from current levels. At the same time on the MACD indicator was launched twin “bear” divergence. Indicator Stochastic”s are on sale.

C wave of the global point of view, the Dow Jones continued /completed the formation of a global wave, which corrects all fall to 38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9440-10350 counts.

remind that the Dow Jones on June 11 formed the first stage of the rebound in subvolny well. In the future, was the formation of wave b, which consisted of zigzag “abc”, where it was too short and has only reached the levels range between 23.6% -38.2% by Fibonacci.

January 19, 2010 to complete its final run up to the objectives 9950-10118-10159-10351-10510-11245 items in the waves with a big wave V. Also still remains level at around 11,245 points, representing 61.8% on Fibonacci of the total incidence.
If the formation of a global wave ended, it had to start building a global wave of up to 2012 to 2550-3500 points.

As an alternative and more complex version, which would delay the correction for years, then in this case the correction is permitted only jump, but not below 9283.77 points. If the Dow Jones index goes below this milestone, then finally come to the realization of the formation of wave C.

From a technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened below previous levels, after which the bulls were able to seize the initiative and went to close the morning gap.
In the second half of the trading session, the bears and bulls have been fighting local significance, and after the release of macroeconomic statistics, the final victory was on the side of the optimists. The volume of the trading session totaled about 50 billion rubles.

On Friday, the MICEX index in early trading session went very important test for the “bulls” line in the vicinity of 1386 points, which permitted the retention of a second jump to 1420-1425 items. As we see, “bulls” to “excellent” failed in their task, and “bears” were content with a fractal on sale at the mark of 1390.34 points.

From the wave point of view in terms of the MICEX index formed a 5-wave impulse 1st down, where the 3-th subvolna ended January 22, a diagonal triangle was a 5th wave, which confirms the divergence on the indicator MACD.

Therefore, now form the MICEX index rebound in relation to all fall to 1427-1443 items, consisting of a zigzag “abc”. /Bordeaux figures. Confirmation of the completion of the current rebound - the breakdown of 1386 points. Friday milestone has been withheld, that allows overcoming the 1425 points and growth to 1434 and 1443 points. Correction in the 2nd wave will take the character of double zigzag “wxy”. In this case, is the wave of y, it will consist of zigzag “abc”, where there is a wave and will be a correction in the form of b, then be with.

also worth noting that while the MICEX index was not established above 1,420 points, so the wave scenario 4th subvolnoy relevant, but less likely than the scenario with the rebound in the 2nd wave. When will the 5th subvolna, it will reach 1326 and 1342 points /blue numbers.
1st pulse in both cases, shortened, suggesting that the 3-th or 5th waves will be stretched. Overcoming the 1443 points will pave the way “bykam” to 1495-1500 items.
Today, the level of resistance will mark 1,427 points, then 1443 points, then 1460 points. Level of support will be a mark in the 1363 and 1386 points.

In addition, the indicator Stochastic”s is buying. According to the indicator MACD “bearish” divergence.

On the daily chart indicator Stochastic”s is buying. In addition, the daily chart the MICEX index moves in a diagonal triangle with the upper limit in the area of 1500 points, lower in the 1350 points. This formation is the ultimate figure rising

Nearest daily fractal for sale is a mark of 1203.15 points, while the daily fractal purchase located at elevation 1491.32 points. Local fractal purchase is a mark of 1491.32 and 1425.26 points, but on sale at around 1363.03 and 1390.34 points.

With long-wave point of view in early 2010 the MICEX index has continued building a global rebound in the wave, which began in October-November 2008, when the index formed a double bottom in the vicinity of 500 points.

So in October 2008, we noted that the optimal range of big rebound was 1055-1230 points, which is 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from the fall, which has been executed in June 2009.

However, after reaching the maximum on 2 June and the beginning of the correction, the optimists kept mark 882 points. This line allows the formation of the 5th wave, but in an alternate complexity of the double zigzag correction to the triple “WXYXXZ” in the same waves B.
Since July 13, bulls have formed a U-turn, punctures line item 882, after which initially formed the rebound to fall, and then continued the development of a large rebound thanks to the euphoria in the markets and ways of increasing the money supply and budget deficits, the following method Krugman.

So, as stated, the MICEX index could form a triple zigzag “WXYXXZ” in the same waves B. Now is the formation of Z-wave with the objectives of 1436 and 1576 points, although in a zigzag was set conditional maximum around 1401 points, therefore growth triples can be completed.
Our alternative layout developed a similar picture, with the exception of internal layout, which now is the formation of a wave with a big wave in the framework of a simple zigzag “abc”.

In a wave of “bulls” have formed a wedge in the form of the 1st subvolny in a corrective wave, and then the 2nd subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the length of the Fibonacci 1st subvolny.
June 2 MICEX index set a new high, and completed the formation of the 3rd subvolny. July 13 complete the formation of the 4th subvolnu, which reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the length of the Fibonacci 3rd subvolny. Now is the formation of the 5th subvolny, which can develop in a finite diagonal triangle, the upper limit is around 1485 points. Also, the objectives of a large corrective wave B may be a mark of 1472, 1536, 1623 points.

At the same time, given that the global wave of developing triple A, then the wave can reach in and double peaks in the region of 1960-1970 points, but if they continue to increase the money supply in the economy, increasing the budget deficit, which will to the inflation of the stock bubble, as was the case with the dot-komami, real estate, oil.
Once complete the formation of the rebound in the wave, it will begin building a global wave C of 450-500 points, and given the panic 150-250 points, and levels can be achieved by mid-2010 and the end of 2012 that will be accompanied by a drop of oil to 15-20 dollars, the Dow Jones index to 2500-3500 items. Confirmation of the medium-term reversal - the breakdown of 1200 points.

In addition, the same RTS index in semilogarithmic scale in January 2009, overcame a maximum of 1997, that at the global level, breaking a long-term trend, and suggests that the growth of a corrective.

On Friday, we advised to close short positions, if not performed abroad in 1386 points, while open long positions before 1425-1427-1434 points. Today, we recommend to record profits on long positions and rediscovered short positions, preferably in the range of 1434-1443 points, or after the breakdown of 1386 points. It also enables the correction of Friday”s jump, but not below 1400 points, followed by another call of the top.

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Forex - results of the day
Following Friday the value of the MICEX Index reached 1419.42 points, which is 0.92% above the closing level of the previous trading day
External background moderately negative for the market of Rd16ussia, America closed lower, Asia traded mostly down
In 2010, investments in the construction of SPC Voŭpa for Olympic facilities will be around 110 million rubles
Last Friday, the euro /dollar continued its decline in the U.S. session, and reached a mark 1.3cb4860
Supervisors are interested in increasing the prices of sugar