Where to invest or where to run the Ukrainians in 2010?
Where to invest or where to run the Ukrainians in 2010? What surprises will present our native country and the world economy? Answers to these questions want to know now. Ukraine looks forward to another year is not too greasy.
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upset by these things about it is not necessary - things will still go a lot better than a year ago. And in general - it”s time to start preparing for the next cycle of economic growth: to make decisive steps in the career, to look to real estate, stock market, and thinking about their own business.
In the first quarter of 2010 will come to on the election. Second - look around and begin to engage in business. In the third - we feel the first fruits of their efforts. In the fourth - there are signs of steady economic recovery
main factor of instability in Ukraine, which does not allow more or less stable economic outlook, by itself, remarkably stable and regular. This election. President of Ukraine purchased every five years, and probably too often. Because of 1,5-2 years before the election to him begin to actively prepare for and no long-term strategies are not realized. What”s the point? Authorities may change, begun to implement projects fail, and have already invested money wasted. Year after the election goes to lose and utryasanie “relations with the government. Total for normal work is 2-2,5 years.
Who can work properly with such a term planning? First, very large corporations who have enough money and influence to negotiate with any authority. And secondly, the small business that does not fly so high and under any circumstances beyond two years do not guess.
State also no long-term strategy to realize can not. Do not have time to just. The new president, who dorvetsya to the helm this year, will be in exactly the same situation. Year will be spent to “solve problems” with the Parliament and to acquire the new government. After two years, God willing, will be devoted to work for the benefit of the fatherland. And there, you see, it”s time to keep the defenses around the presidential chair. Thus, the state power in Ukraine is rolled on the level of interest of the small business - like night and day stand so hold. And absolutely do not care what is written in the economic, social and other programs of the presidential candidates. Is written all this just for the amusement of the audience, because for 2-2,5 years to realize any long-term transformation will not succeed.
Ukrainians in such circumstances can only rely on themselves. Crisis before the election became a fetish rather than a real sphere of activity to authorities. Government with him as it struggles, and opposition to his actions as would be criticized. Officials have something to talk about on numerous talk shows, and citizens of Ukraine have the opportunity to demonstrate their ability to survive in difficult circumstances.
As recognized car dealers, builders and retailers, the companies plan their activities mainly quarterly. Projections for the end of the year is not too clear - the majority of business representatives expect that 2010 will bring the same results as the 2009-th. “Similar results” mean the same level of revenue for companies and the same level of salaries for their employees.
October results, Ukraine dropped to last place on the level of wages in Europe in dollar terms. According to Goskomstat, the lowest paid among the five countries of Europe, Ukraine is in last place. In Bulgaria the average salary is $ 420, in Albania - $ 400, in Belarus - $ 360, Moldova - $ 250, in Ukraine - $ 240. By year end, thanks to the strengthening of the hryvnia Ukraine can overtake Moldova and exit at the penultimate position. But the resumption of economic growth and increasing wages the company is not expected until 2011.
Nutrient figures
afraid of elections, not only in Ukraine. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which in 2010 plans to invest in Ukraine, € 1,1 billion, acknowledges that “the upcoming elections will bring another wave of instability.” It said at an international forum in Kharkov, deputy director of the EBRD in Ukraine Graham Hutchison, wrote RBC-Ukraine. Nevertheless, he said, the Bank intends to continue to support Ukraine. In 2009, the EBRD has financed agricultural projects in Ukraine in the amount of € 200 million and has no plans to reduce funding for agribusiness in 2010.
For private investors, such statements EBRD - a good sign. They are equivalent words: “invest in the agrarian sector of Ukraine profitable. Indeed, Ukraine is one of the largest grain exporter in the world. And, best of all, a crisis in 2009 sales of grain was increased. According to National Bank of Ukraine, during the first quarter of 2009 compared to the first quarter of 2008 the volume of food exports increased by 2,9% (unfortunately, more recent data at the time this article was not).
Exports grew by crops (they sold na19% more) and oilseeds (their exports in general increased in 7,9 times). All farmers were able to earn in foreign markets $ 2,119 million times the money into account the NBU, then they poured into the Ukrainian economy and were able to support the currency. If we talk about high places, then, according to the head of the advisory group to head the National Bank of Valery Litvitsky, generally up to the December surplus intervention of the National Bank (redeemer of “excess” currency market to prevent too much strengthening of the hryvnia) could be worth $ 300 million Far from the high spheres of citizens to the end of 2009 to observe the stabilization of the hryvnia exchange rate through the windows of exchangers.
Bank has no plans to reduce support of agricultural enterprises in 2010, then they all continue to be more or less well. But when her own Ukrainian government is capable of destroying everything. According to the Director of the EBRD agribusiness Gilles Mettetala, to finance infrastructure development of the land market, the Bank will only be if it were lifted a moratorium on the sale of agricultural land. And just to abolish the Ukrainian parliament is not going to - in the last days of December, he voted in first reading for its extension until 2012. The President vetoed the law on the moratorium, but to sense from the little - “for” a moratorium voted significantly more than 300 MPs, therefore, the veto could be easily overcome.
Heavy digits
Heavier industries that traditionally “fed” Ukraine - metallurgy, machine building and chemical industry- come to life is much slower. Steelmakers, for example, in October 2009, according to Goskomstat, increased output (147.6% of the volume in October 2008). How hastened to the Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn, is much higher than the average of 2000-2008, the general record for this type of activity since 2004.
However, in November Issue of metallurgical products decreased compared with October (97.8% compared to October), and in the first 11 months amounted to 70,4% of volumes, issued during the same period in 2008. As stated in the macro-economic review of the NBU, in addition to the positive factors that helped the industry (low exchange rate of hryvnia, price stabilization and lifting of some trade restrictions in the EU), its pernicious influence exerted negative (problem with raw materials, low domestic demand, shortage of working capital and “Duty” by the machinations of Russia).
total balance of foreign trade in the III quarter of 2009 remained negative - $ 258 million mainly due to scarce trade balance surplus - $ 1.7 billion when data become available for the IV quarter, the absolute figures, of course, will change, but the general trend - is unlikely Do. Ukraine continues to buy products in large amounts, than sell.
I am glad that in the III quarter of 2009, exports of goods increased by 12,8% compared to II quarter and totaled $ 10.4 billion What is particularly good - due to the low rate of the hryvnia and the relatively stable world prices of export growth in dollar terms means a natural increase in deliveries. That is actually Ukrainian exporters have been able to sell more. On the other hand, $ 10.4 billion still falls short of only half the volume of exports of the same period of 2008. But this is not too terrible, because in 2008, Ukraine has exported its products to a record sum for all time of its existence.
Unpleasant figures
addition to exporting dollars to Ukraine and the government tossed. But it attracted others and for a time. In November 2008, the IMF decided to provide Ukraine $ 16.4 billion in loans stand by. Already been allocated three tranches totaling $ 12 billion issuance of the fourth portion of the money is open to question - again, elections, political instability. According to NBU”s gross external debt of Ukraine at the end of November 2009 rose to $ 104.376 billion, according to the World Bank, the external debt of Ukraine in September was approximately 84% of its gross domestic product (GDP). As a result of Ukraine”s debts in 2009 may exceed 90% of its GDP. The figure is very scary, but it also includes debt of the State of Ukraine, and loans to Ukrainian companies.
State and state guarantees of the secured debt is 36,7% of GDP. This is not so bad, but still the threat of default for Ukraine is very real. What is most distressing, in 2010, the situation has not improved, but also threatens to worsen - on World Bank estimates, government debt and secured loans in the current year reached 41,7% of GDP. Fortunately, the experts of the Bank”s forecast that the Ukrainian companies will normally pay off their loans and total debt reduced to 82% of GDP. That”s only cause fear plans to bring this premier national debt to a level of 48,4% of GDP.
As regards the forecasts of economic growth, then, according to preliminary results of 2009, nominal GDP (ie the prices of 2009) reached 912.3 billion UAH. Real GDP (translated in comparable prices) is estimated MB 15% less than it was in 2008. In 2010 GDP will grow, but he did not even reach the pre-crisis 2007.
Glad numbers
As the data published on the website of the National Bank, Ukraine”s GDP grew for two quarters - from April to September 2009. In the second quarter of 2009, he was at 4,5% more than in the first quarter, while the third - on 2,9% more than in the second. Growth, of course, decreased, but! In international practice, it is assumed that GDP growth for two consecutive quarters indicates the end of a recession in the economy.
How
says Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn, the Ukrainian economy will be able to restore the pre-crisis GDP by the end of 2012. According to his estimates, the decline of GDP in 2009 will amount to only 10-12%. “Positive trends in the economy had already started and before the end of 2009, they will grow. It is expected that the results of I half of 2010 we will have a positive result - optimistically believes the minister. - In most countries followed a similar trend of gradual reduction of the depth of the fall on the background booming demand and prices on world markets. Therefore, we expect trends to continue recovery of domestic industrial production not only in sectors oriented to domestic consumption, but also in sectors oriented to the external market. ”
projected Danylyshyn, in 2010 Ukrainian GDP will grow by 3,7%.
World Bank forecasts for Ukraine in 2010, more modest growth - 2,5%. They say the situation on world markets would improve, but Ukraine will not be able to fully feel it. World Bank, we believe more than politically biased to the Minister.
and reasons for restraint in the optimism we have enough. “Bad” loans from the banks too much, so the new loans they issue are extremely reluctant. Own resources of the Ukrainian companies to replenish the working capital is not enough, and domestic demand to help them too, nothing will - salaries will not grow, so buy the Ukrainians will be extremely reluctant.
This, of course, unpleasant. But inflation would not grow. Following the 2009 World Bank predicts decline in official inflation in Ukraine than 14% (for 11 months in 2009 she was 11, 3%). In 2010 - less than 11%. Ministry of Economy in 2010, forecasts inflation at 9.7%. The government, however, inflation is almost never guesses.
price index for the middle class, which counts on “Money”, for 11 months in 2009 was much smaller than the official inflation - prices rose by only 8,1%. Our shopping cart contains far fewer unwanted domestic goods (who is full basket Goskomstat, which is on the official inflation), so sensitive to changes in purchasing power of the middle class. Data in December, of course, will increase this figure, but the outcome, it just is less than 14%.
In 2010, inflation expectations are low. However, as salary. Market Basket does not grow in value by more than 10-15%, while the growth index of wages will not exceed 5%.
Prospective digits
So, what in 2010 will affect the Ukrainian economy and our lives positively? The gradual increase in production (if foreign markets do not change), the stabilization of the internal political situation (of a president still elect), low inflation, stimulating savings, and consumption, as well as a no, though small, but still still higher wages.
poison the lives of Ukrainians are fluent devaluation of the hryvnia, the growing national debt and the related threat of default is too slow and reluctant inflow of money into the economy, problems with credit, as well as the possible increase in the number of bankruptcies of companies. The budget for 2010, incidentally, has not yet been adopted.
In general, a difficult year. But in 2011, almc8aost all experts are predicting steady growth, which means that just in 2010 it makes sense to start your business: the cost is low, and the economic recovery is nigh.
And if you take up your own business does not hunt, then 2010 will give the last chance to educate ourselves strong - in 2011, when economic growth begins, this simply will not have enough time.
Anna Kibovskaya
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