Ukraine in anticipation of “significant” dates - February 7, a second round of presidential elections. This day will bring to our lives, not only political surprises, but also economic. Among the latter - the exchange rate. What will it be?

If the president will be …

Again dilemma … If the President will Yulia Tymoshenko, then it is likely down to the revaluation of the national currency, as it was in 2005 and 2008, ie increase the rate of hryvnia to the level of 6,5 UAH. as prime previously promised. Theoretically it is possible. But the question arises whether this is now the economy? On the one hand, at that rate will decrease the debt burden of foreign currency loans, which were taken before the crisis. This will allow borrowers to save about 80 billion UAH. On the other hand, banks have a problem with payment of interest and repayment of foreign currency deposits. That is, “win” the borrowers will have to pay the owners of deposits.

Another plus strong hryvnia include cheaper imports, primarily of Russian natural gas. Revaluation of the national currency to the level of 6,5 UAH /USD. actually help to offset the price increase of natural gas in Russia this year.

But there is a negative - any problems with Ukrainian manufacturers. Just part of domestic production will be more expensive than imports. As a result, the importer of the ball, as it was in 2005-2008.

devaluation of the currency to the level of 8 UAH /USD. - A fait accompli that the economy was working fine, do not need extreme fluctuation, and its stability for the long term.

If the President will be Viktor Yanukovych, the likely revaluation of the hryvnia will not. Can not exclude a slight devaluation of the currency, which can be called as an infusion of “fresh” money into the economy and the desire to create more favorable conditions for exporters. The main Ukrainian export - metal products and chemical industry, the price of which depends largely on the price of Russian natural gas. This factor will be constrained by the devaluation.

As can be …

And now the possible scenarios of the situation after the final, hopefully, a second round of presidential elections.

Scenario 1. If the losing party does not agree with the results of the elections and will attempt to demonstrations and rallies to paralyze the life of the country, blocking the work of business, the dollar is sure to soar upwards. “Escape” in the currency will strengthen, which could provoke a course of 10 UAH /USD. above. Any shocks to the post-crisis economy undesirable.

Scenario 2. If you challenge the election results did not go beyond the “ethical” trials, the likely rate of 8 UAH /USD. remain a reference point for the market. Possible small fluctuations in the interbank market within 8,1-8,8 UAH /USD. That would be caused by calendar payments exporters and importers. The sooner completed political strife, the better for the economy. To this one can add on resumption of cooperation with the IMF and the proceeds of foreign investment. A signal that foreign investors are willing to invest in our country already has - significantly reduced yield of Ukrainian Eurobonds in the international markef28t. (The current yield of eurobonds of Ukraine - 8.9% per annum, and a year ago it was around 40-50% per annum).

Scenario 3. If the debate surrounding the presidency will not heal for a long period, we can expect to return to the market exchange from the “shadow” economy, and from abroad. And this is the order of $ 20 billion of cash and about $ 22 billion non-cash, which at the time of crisis “emigrated. Even some of these funds can strengthen the exchange rate at the level of 7,5-7,7 UAH /USD.

But the fate of the hryvnia depends on several factors. Wage arrears, the payment of social standards in the light of their increasing, debts of Government Bonds, VAT Refund, as well as the problematic cover the state budget deficit may be a good incentive for emission. But if the printing machine include smoothly, and the process to stretch over time, the rate at the level of 7,5-7,7 UAH /USD. You can save up to year”s end and longer …

We still have quite a bit to wait to choose a “style” of behavior …

Alexander Okhrymenko

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