Decline in core index began week Russia's stock market (RTS index - minus 2.1%, the index of MICEX - minus 1.74%). In the forecast - a negative opening, strengthening the negative dynamics closer to the end of trading as amplification of declining world oil prices and a significant reduction in the Wall Street opening. Reducing the closure of the entire spectrum of the most liquid securities with a slightly stronger fall in shares of oil and gas sector (Gazprom - minus 2.51%, Lukoil - minus 1.37%, Nornickel - minus 2.87%, Sberbank - minus 1.7%, Rosneft - minus 2.27%, Surgutneftegaz - minus 3.36%, VTB - minus 1.37%). Low activity of trading on the background of the day off in London, helped avoid a more significant reduction because of falling oil prices to the level of the monthly minimum. In general, the natural continuation of the correction on the background of the weakness of world stock and commodity areas. The regular pause after rising in recent months.
Today morning on a neutral external background does not give express signals for the opening of Russia's main index, but assumes a moderate positive intraday technical rebound after yesterday's decline. Preferential rule pessimism in yesterday's auction, but the neutral dynamics in the world's leading stock exchanges today. Thus, lower finished day major U.S. indexes (DJI - minus 0.5%, NASDAQ - minus 0.97%, S P500 - minus 0.81%). Market ignored the favorable statistics on an index of business activity Chicago PMI, but sensitively responded to the decline of the stock market in China, which once again speaks in favor of the disposition of correction. Mixed dynamics - in shares of financial companies and banks. At the end of the day, shares of Citigroup fell 4.4%, JPMorgan shares rose 1.26%, Bank of America shares were down 2.17%. A sharp drop in world oil prices, the negative dynamics of the shares of the energy sector. Index's largest oil companies fell on the results of the day at 1.69%. From the statistics of the United States today will provide interest index of activity in the productive sector PMI U.S. in August and the number of homes for sale in July. After yesterday's decline against a backdrop of modest technical rebound in the stock market in China, futures on major U.S. indices show a very moderate positive trend. In addition to U.S. statistics, the movement of world stock and commodity platforms will influence the statistical power in Europe (PMI manufacturing sector of the eurozone and Britain in August, unemployment in the eurozone for July).
negative correction on Wall Street was reflected in the dynamics of stock markets in Latin America yesterday (Mexico - minus 1.64%, Brazil - minus 2.1%, Argentina - minus 0.84%). The predominance of positive dynamics in Asia today (Japan - 0.36%, Korea - 1.96%, China - 1.4%, Taiwan - 2.84%).
sharp drop to the level of the minimum monthly level - the world oil market yesterday, but a modest positive trend of the weakening U.S. currency and through a positive intraday technical rebound in Asia today. Price of the October Brent crude oil futures on the results of yesterday's trades fell by 3.14 dollars to 69.65 after the 68.85 intraday low of the dollar. In Asia, the October futures price of Brent oil rose by 0.5 dollars. Today the dynamics of the oil market will determine the direction of the dollar after the statistics on the U.S. and Europe and the weekly oil statistics from the American Petroleum Institute later in the night.
The lack of trading on the LME (day off), yesterday, but a significant decrease in futures for the major base metals this morning.
Moderate negative dynamics, despite the sharp decline in world oil prices - the sector ADRs for shares of Russia's oil and gas sector in the U.S. yesterday, negative, slight discount to the closing ktsenam shares in RTS August 31: Gazprom - minus 0.7%, Lukoil - minus 0.7%, Surgutneftegaz - minus 0.24%.
At Russia's stock market is expected to mixed, relatively neutral open on the main index, OPPOSITE discovery of the most liquid securities, but the probability of a positive rebound a bit later during the day. On the one hand - there is a welcome rebound in the stock markets in Asia and against this background that the positive dynamics of futures on major U.S. indices, a modest strengthening in world oil prices contributed to intraday technical rebound in Russia. On the other hand - the day before a significant decline in world oil prices and the modesty of the current rebound in oil prices will exert pressure and interfere with a heavy reconstruction of the most liquid securities, including shares of oil and gas sector. The result - invariably short-term prediction on the main index (from 1100-1130 points to 960 points with an intermediate solid support just above 1000 points). Probable range of today will be 1100-1090 points on the upper boundary, 1050-1065 items - on the lower boundary.
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