Quotes euro continues to win back factor in the weakening of Finance of the European “periphery”. According to last month CDS Greece, Portugal, Iceland increased by 21, 38 and 106 basis points, Italy and Spain - by 50 bp

This situation has a direct negative market pressure on the single currency eurozone, prejudice increased sales of government bonds, these countries. In addition, it is obviously much more difficult for the ECB to the process of downsizing its enabling policy, as banks, including Greece, in recent quarters actively used the opportunity provided by the European Central Bank “cheap” refinancing. Finally, growing up in this situation, the chances of early tightening fiscal policies of EU states obviously detrimental to the medium-term projections of GDP euro area.

Additional support for the rate of USD yesterday provided information about the Treasury”s November net capital inflow of $ 26.6 billion against the outflow of the U.S. economy 25,4 billion in the previous month. In general, indicators of the trade balance and balance of capital flows now have a favorable impact on the exchange rate U.S.. The main risk remains in this case, fiscal imbalances America. However, according to the current average market forecast budget deficit in America”s mid-term period will gradually decline.

The limiting factor to enhance the positive trend of USD remains fairly low average estimates of market risks, inflation and investment issues. In their background, quotes, including the world”s stock market yesterday continued growth. Perhaps, however, that the financial markets again, as in the beginning of the current crisis, underestimates its dependence, in this case - the situation in the financial, banking the EU.

In general, weekly and medium-term trend rate EUR /USD seem to remain “bearish”. Although in the short-term technical factors may allow the euro to win back some lost ground.

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