China”s GDP in 2009 grew by 10,7% (g /g) at an average prognosis of this indicator is 10,8% and 9,1% in III kv. last year. Due to the revision of the previous values of China”s GDP for 2009 as a whole, therefore, increased by 8,7% (g /g) when analysts expected an average of this indicator at the level of 8,5% and 9,6% (g /g ) in 2008

Prices are in showgirl, despite its favorable character, had a mixed impact on the level of investment in risk “because, obviously, will certify that the authorities in China to a certain potential tightening of monetary policy in coming quarters. Similar projections have recently found confirmation. So, head of the Banking PRC L. Minkail said yesterday that Chinese banks were requested to reduce l1000ending to a record 9.59 trillion. yuan, or $ 1.4 trillion. issued in the past year. Eton rate is 95% higher than in 2008 issued 4.9 trillion. yuan and nearly 30% of GDP in China. It is estimated that the commission, the volume of new loans in 2010 to be around 7.5 trillion. yuan, or $ 1.1 trillion. Members of the commission at the same believe that the marked in January of this year increase in lending is about to shrink noticeably.

Is also worth noting that the report published yesterday in the World Economic Forum (WEF) “Global Risks”, was highlighted by the threat of an overheating Chinese economy.

WEF Managing Director, Robert Greenhill, introducing the report also noted that “a significant number of countries in the medium term can accumulate significant and potentially unaffordable debt, which in turn will strongly increase the pressure on global credit rates.

U.S. PPI in December of this year showed an increase of 5% (g /g) versus -3% (g /g) on average in January-October 2009, and reports of American banks for the IV quarter. this year, also released yesterday, although it showed an average exceeding the target for earnings per share growth of their predictive values, in general, reflecting continuing adverse situation in the credit sector, particularly in the segment of the mortgage.

Favorable for financial markets character was released yesterday, the World Bank, raised its estimate for growth in world GDP in 2010 and 2011. to 2,7% and 3,2% respectively. However, its positive impact on quotes risky investments is very limited. It should be noted that laid down in the ratings agencies SP levels EPS of U.S. companies for 2010, 2011. according to the indicators must correspond to the medium-term correlation of U.S. GDP growth of about 3% and 4% (g /g), respectively. Now projected for the requested World Bank, IMF and OESR levels of this indicator does not exceed 2,5% and 2,8% respectively. The current level of consumer inflation in the U.S. in 1,5-3 times higher than estimates of the index in the coming years, can be calculated by analytic structures.

Against this background, while retaining a sufficiently low average levels of market indicators of investment risk and volatility, the U.S. dollar on Wednesday continued a lively increase of FX, including against the euro.

Reducing the cost of a single European currency is now substantially “ahead of schedule, pointing to the expected market in the medium term, a very active deterioration of the investment, balance of payments of the euro area, as well as the growth rate of EMC in comparison with the world average of this indicator.

If these forecasts are confirmed, quotation EUR /USD by the end of 2010 may be reduced to 1,1 - 1,2 U.S. dollars per euro, that is to return to levels appropriate purchasing power parity single European currency. At the same time, it is obvious that for the players on the depreciation of the single European currency risks associated with the implementation of their investment strategy in a shortage of “fresh” macroeconomic signals is increased.

Nevertheless, at least in terms of technical factors, as well as taking into account favorable to the USD medium term projections of the basic rates of the Fed and the ECB, “short” positions on the pair EUR /USD, open for a period of several weeks to several months at the moment still seems preferable.

 

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