tension in financial markets that have prevailed in recent weeks, it seems somewhat weaker. In his speech yesterday before Congress, U.S. President Barack Obama said he was not interested in punishing American banks for the crisis occurred, although it will oppose any bill to reform the financial system, which would be “too weak”. He also promised the Americans that will restore the growth of employment, limit the widening budget deficit and double exports over the next five years.

According to Barack Obama, offered them health care reform would allow the United States to reduce the budget deficit to $ 1 trillion. within the next 20 years. However, such an approach to solving the budget problem “will allow Americans to have insurance to keep your doctor and your insurance plan. It will help to reduce health care costs for millions of families and businesses.” The same goal - reducing the budget deficit, currently $ 1.4 trillion. - On “Obama”s plan, the budget reduction package of spending federal agencies, which is now estimated at $ 0.477 trillion.

The U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday left its key interest rate unchanged and reiterated its intention to phase out the program with the repurchase market for treasury bonds and debt securities of mortgage agencies. At the same time, she was once again declared the commitment of the Fed “soft” credit policy, which will be held Reserve System “for a long period.”
Besides macroeconomic assessments Fed once again improved. According to the outcome document of the January session of the FOMC, in particular, “cost of business equipment and software to show signs of growth.” In a similar review of the December Fed said that “business continues to reduce capital investment, although with less activity than before”.

Against this background, we can see that segment investment risks adjusted upward from their January lows and the price in terms of the next few weeks, it appears that still retains the tendency to consolidate within a wide price range. The failure of the “Obama plan” would lead to an increase in market volatility, “inflating” bubble “on a number of market segments. The success of the U.S. Administration will gain a positive correlation of prices in financial markets and the behavior of real macroeconomic statistics, but it”s hardly a circumstance” discourage “investor1000s” desire to earn money while maintaining long-term inflationary threat and against the background of increased competition in the financial sector.

Nevertheless, improved dynamics, including the world”s stock markets, had little effect on the dynamics of the course the single European currency to the dollar, which continues to reflect the changes in ownership within the European risks. Apparently, such a divergence of the medium term will accumulate. Yesterday, during the Economic Forum in Davos, professor at the University of New York N. Roubini said in an interview with Bloomberg, that in the next few years, there were “increasing risks of” the collapse of EMC due to uneven economic development of countries in Europe. According to N. Roubini, “the economy the euro zone may, in fact, drift, showing the splitting of indicators with a strong center and weak periphery, and, finally, some countries may withdraw from the European Monetary Union. It should be noted that recently Germany”s Chancellor Angela Merkel also said that the euro in the coming years, expects “difficult period”.

It is possible that in the short run, overall easing of tensions on the segment of risky investments, yet will support the exchange rate of EUR /USD.

However, the medium-term potential for further strengthen the USD exchange rate against the euro, against the backdrop of increasing European inflation and investment risks, and in a possible general trend of the U.S. currency on the FX at the moment, is relatively high.

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