Institute Development Center and the Center for Economic Policy Analysis, SU-HSE presented the results of the study “Results of 2009 and mid-term scenarios for Russia”s economy.” According to economists, the economy next year may develop in three possible scenarios: U-figurative (drop-off), L-figurative (drop-stagnation), and W-shape (second bottom). Probability of scenarios U /L /W is 40% /40% /20%, respectively.

U-shaped scenario of rapid economic recovery suggests that the weak “green shoots” that are now observed in developed countries, next year will get stronger, and in 2011, the global economy will return to pre-crisis pace of development. An important prerequisite for this scenario is the flow of speculative capital from currency and commodity markets in the real sector and its transformation in the growth of lending.

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L-shaped scenario assumes that the leading economies, in particular, the U.S. will show stagnation and a very small increase. “In these conditions, we expect the global economy falls into a so-called credit trap, where the company will be saddled with an old volume of debt and banking sector, not seeing an economic recovery will not seek to give them,” - said a senior researcher at the Institute Development Center “SU-HSE Maxim Petronevich.

W-shaped scenario of the second wave of the crisis suggests that the central banks of major economies will continue a policy of cheap money and will try to fill the whole jar of money in financial markets in the hope that the extra money will lead to their inflow into the real sector. The danger is that in such circumstances cheap money will lead to the inflow of money to the commodity markets and the rapid rise in oil prices. In 2011, these bubbles burst, and will begin the second wave of the crisis, warns Mr. Petronevich.

Sergei Aleksashenko
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