The data of the Russian economy in April published Rosstat last Friday, as most analysts had expected, in general, have been weak. In April, the rate of growth of the industrial sector, retail trade, investment, wages and incomes in the annual comparison worsened compared with the March dynamics.

key macroeconomic% year to year

Sources: Rosstat, LED, Analytical Department of the Bank of Moscow

A decline in industrial production in April to 16.9% - highest since the beginning of the year - became known last week. According to analysts NB Trust, the deterioration of the dynamics are mainly due to a marked slowdown in the energy and transport engineering. Also provokes further decline of industrial production, according to chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova, continues to deteriorate the dynamics of investment.

In April, the volume of investments fell by 16.2% year-y-year, accelerating, thus, its decline, compared with 15% of th decline in January-March 2009 (annual comparison), - said the economist. - No surprisingly, this leads to a deterioration of the situation with the volume of industrial production, which accelerated with the compression of 14.3% year-to-year in the first quarter of 2009 to 14,9% year-to-year, four months of 2009. In turn, the director of analytical department of Bank of Moscow Kirill Tremasov notes that if we compare the dynamics of investment a month to month, in April relative to March, there was even some growth rate (at 3.4%), which pleasantly surprised analysts. In fact, since February the monthly dynamics of investment corresponds sredneistoricheskim values - he said. - Based on these data it can be argued that the physical volume of investment declined sharply from September to January, down to levels two years ago. Now, the figure moves around on a trajectory of 2007 and if this trajectory will be able to retain, at the end of the year decline in investment should not exceed 9% (our current outlook - falling to 22 %).

Some experts also pleasantly surprised by some recovery in the construction, where in April the volume of work increased by 12.7% compared with March, which led to a reduction in the annual decline in value of 20.2% to 16.3%. We see this as a rather optimistic news, since the revival of construction activity is not only hope to stabilize the investment, but also support the industry, - said the chief economist of the National Bank Trust Eugene Nadorshin. And if you analyze separately the dynamics of housing, following four months of housing was built and is at 4.3% over the same period last year. However, Cyril Tremasov warns that the positive trend can be deceiving. Builders are now focused on projects with a high degree of willingness to defer projects in the initial stage and almost no running new - he said. - This means that the decline in this sector, we will see later.

April statistics on the labor market analysts had only one disappointment. And the main source of concern was the level of unemployment. Rosstat estimated, for April the number of unemployed rose from 7.5 to 7.7 million people, while the unemployment rate rose from 10%to 10,2%. When the number of officially registered unemployed in April rose from 2.18 to 2.27 million people. The increase in unemployment, according to Natalia Orlova, strikes on consumer spending, despite some improvement in trend in real disposable income (compared to April 2008, they decreased by 0.1%, but in relation to March 2009 - up by 5, 8%). As a result, retail sales in April fell by 0.2% compared to the previous month and 5.3% relative to April 2008, which, according to Cyril Tremasova significantly worse than the average values for the month. The dynamics of retail sales clearly indicates that consumer demand continues to decline and have not yet reached a bottom, - said the analyst.

Thus, the search for the bottom of many economic indicators have not yet been completed. And even if the downturn in the industry will reach its low point in May and June, it does not mean that the rest of the areas he did not continue to go, - says Evgeny Nadorshin. In turn, analysts believe the Bank of Moscow, that the current economic cycle in Russia is close to its lowest point. The second quarter will be weak, the fall in GDP in this period is likely to exceed the figures first quarter (-9.5% year to year), - predicts Cyril Tremasov. - But in the third quarter as the stabilization of consumer demand dynamics of the GDP starts to straighten. At the end of the year in the Bank of Moscow expect GDP to fall 7.8% and the reduction of industrial production to 10.2%. Official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development is currently at revision. It is anticipated that the evaluation of the fall in GDP from the current 2.2% will be revised to 4-8%, depending on the scenario. In doing so, the federal budget deficit will be not less than 7% of GDP, which, however, as he said today, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the Budget speech with a message to the Federal Assembly, is more optimistic figure.

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