Analysts Investment Company (IR), “Renaissance Capital expects that next year will be a turning point for Russia's economy - with a very grim beginning and an impressive end.

As stated in the review of the IR, its analysts believe strongly that in the middle of next year, the mood will be dramatically different from the current, largely thanks to active government policy and the expected recovery of world markets (both financial and commodity). The entire Russian economy growth will occur in the second half of 2009, while in the first half of the year accumulated growth would be zero.

Forecast “Renaissance Capital” at a cost of Brent crude oil brands in the world market in 2009 is $ 70 per barrel. Moreover, they believe that in future oil prices continue to rise.

especially the Russian crisis

According to the experts “Renaissance Capital in Russia crisis is compounded by the fact that its impact on the economy reflected a slow, and many companies are only now beginning to consider when drawing up budgets, not only short-term disruption in the banking system, but a protracted period of deficit credit in the economy.

According to analysts, in 2009 the world economy (translated into Russian reality through the oil price) will be a key factor influencing the situation in Russia. Another, perhaps equally important factor will be the answer to the Russian authorities' current challenges.

Regarding external factors professionals infrared doing the following: the financial apocalypse did not come, China will be able to commit a “soft landing” and the global financial system is gradually restored.

At the same time, the survey indicates that financial flows to developing markets, most likely in 2009 will remain limited, and refinancing of debt by Russian borrowers are still seemed almost unreal to them.

According to analysts' Renaissance Capital, the anticipated development of the Russian economy more appropriately considered by quarters, since the annual result can be as nepokazatelnym, as the average temperature in the hospital.

First quarter: economic growth will be low or negative

According to analysts “Renaissance Capital”, at the beginning of next year's economic growth will be low or negative, but the banking system will still be unable to carry out the traditional functions of attracting deposits and loans.

“The situation in the world economy does not give cause for optimism, and we consider it unlikely that in the first quarter reflected signs of stabilization, a key economic indicators show improvement for the fourth quarter of 2008. In the January-March main risks are related to that oil prices will likely remain at current levels, but do not start to recover, “- says the review.

As expected, experts, the Russian steel industry will remain in the doldrums due to low demand, non-payment and the prolonged period of reducing stock. Financial services sector will continue to reduce staff in the face of gradual consolidation, which is not conducive to increasing lending. In addition, it is found in the first quarter of the full unemployment rate.

In October and December this year, problems in the economy became more and more, but the first quarter of 2009 will bring new losses, analysts emphasize.

Meanwhile, the Government significantly increase wages Devolving the Costs and would rate the Russian currency - presumably in January and February - to fall to a minimum next year - 32 rubles. /$ 1.

According to analysts, despite the fact that the devaluation of the ruble to the dollar will become the most important driving force behind the economy in 2009, devaluation of the currency is likely to lead to new disruptions in the banking system and the economy in general and, of course, will cause negative reaction of the people, undermining prospects for economic development in the first quarter.

“In the first quarter obtained the turnover process of consolidation in the banking system. The decline in GDP of 3% of the previous quarter (adjusted for seasonal variations), and for the first quarter of 2008 - about 0.5%. popolzut up prices of imported products, and after them, and at home (against the backdrop of the devaluation of the ruble). By the end of March slowdown in economic activity should largely come to an end “, - the analysis.

leading role in economic development in the first quarter of 2009, according to experts, will play a government consumption, while private sector consumption and investment will remain stable. With regard to individual industries, negative momentum will be registered in mining, construction, real estate property. At the same time, the repetition of the results of 2008 can be expected in manufacturing and financial activities. In addition, a small increment will be able to fix the scope of communal, social and personal services, education and health.

positive dynamics of manufacturing industries can provide the state order.

Second quarter: the beginning of stabilization

in the second quarter of 2009, the situation will stabilize, analysts predict.

Government to implement infrastructure projects, perhaps the announcement of the new changes in tax law (known as a period not later than April - approx. IC).

Experts estimate IR, RF GDP growth in the second quarter will be close to zero in the annual comparison and about 2% in the quarterly (taking into account seasonal factors).

Compared with the second quarter of 2008 in the red - and large - left mining, construction and operation of real estate. Growth in education, health care and public spheres, social and personal services will accelerate. After the devaluation of monetary policy will become more effective tool, and banks will no longer face the threat of a sharp and sudden fall of the ruble. Efforts by the Central Bank of Russia to give financial system liquidity in practice should not lead to undesirable consequences, such as a surge in demand for dollars from banks. Consequently, more money gets into the real economy.

Third quarter: a favorable effect of the devaluation

In the third quarter of the coming year will be felt increasingly favorable effect of the devaluation of the ruble, seen the first signs of improvement in the global economy, analysts believe.

In their view, in connection with the exhaustion of inventory in warehouses, for example, will resume growth in consumption of metals, which push up prices.

“You can certainly argue about the exact timing of the elimination of warehouses, some specialists believe that this will happen even sooner,” - noted experts in the review.

Thanks to stabilize demand should begin and rising oil prices and problems in financial markets cease to exert pressure on commodity quotes. Underway should keep projects in infrastructure. The GDP increased compared to third quarter 2008 and second quarter of 2009 to 4.2% and 5% respectively (adjusted for seasonal deviations). Resumes growth in mining, accelerate the pace of growth in manufacturing, in a small plus will build and real estate transactions.

Fourth quarter: a powerful recovery

fourth quarter of 2009 promises to be a period of strong recovery with growth close to 11.6% and 7% in annual and quarterly comparison, respectively (adjusted for seasonal deviations), analysts predict.

In doing so, they believe that such rapid growth should not be considered unattainable: at a pace the economy, for example, in the second half of 1999 and 2000.

Analysts believe that by the fourth quarter of the price of oil should definitely begin to recover, and to show growth prospects globally. The driving forces of growth in Russia must become private consumption and investment, funded by the same private sector. The structure of growth by sector leaders to remain in the mining, transport and communications, manufacturing production. Given the weakening economy in the fourth quarter of 2008, a role to play and the factor of low base. There seems improbable and the resumption of foreign direct investment, albeit to a limited extent.