Global growth in 2009 for the first time since the 60th century, the last stop and give way to fall to 0.4%, compared to 2% by the growth in 2008. These data are contained in the report of the international association of financial institutions, Institute of International Finance (Washington). In most developed and growing economy is expected to decline, particularly in the U.S. GDP to decline by 1.3%, Eurozone GDP - at 1.5% in Japan - at 1.2%. This decline will be offset by the largest-growing economies - Brazil increased by 1.5% in India - 5%, while in China - 6.5%. In Russia, unlike the other BRIC countries will be fixed at the level of GDP falling 1,5%.

Other research centers worldwide macroeconomic conditions lead such evaluation, although more optimistic figures. In particular, the World Bank fears that the financial and economic crisis will lead to a powerful economic recession since the Great Depression. “The financial crisis, obviously, will result in the most severe recession in the thirties of last century,” - said the World Bank chief economist Justin Liin to comment the BBC. The World Bank has revised the final economic forecast for 2008 and the beginning of the year in the hopes pinned on the 3.3% rise, but now says the growth of world GDP at 2.5%. In the forecast for 2009, the figures have changed even more dramatically - from 3,6 to 0,9%.

Comment of the Institute of International Finance of the situation in Russia is very pessimistic, because the economic situation is compounded by falling oil prices and credit crisis. “Next year we expect the fiscal deficit and current account balances. Despite the claims of the tightening of fiscal policy, a significant reduction in the reserve funds would lead to a substantial correction of the ruble, which is unlikely to be avoided in the first half of 2009″ - a report of the institute.

Such assessment is strongly at odds with official forecasts of government officials in Russia. Based on recent data Rosstat MEDT Russia appreciates the growth of GDP for the IV quarter of 2008 at 2.6%. This means that in November and December, with the exception of seasonality, continued slowdown. Overall, GDP growth for 2008 was 6%. This positive result is achieved, mainly due to growth in the first half. For the main scenario, the Ministry of Economic Development, the country's GDP in 2009 to grow by 2.4%.

In a significant reduction of Russia's GDP in 2008, on the basis of confidence in the Center for Economic Research Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO). “Appearing in official statistics on the GDP data did not reflect the real picture of the economy. They are contrary to information about large-scale decline in industrial production in the country, reducing the real incomes of Russians and the outflow of foreign capital. The public authorities seeking to cover up the situation by declaring the end of the year GDP growth and projecting it in 2009. Considerations about slowing economic growth are without foundation. The economy is developed full-blown recession, “- says Boris Kagarlitsky IGSO.

Pleases one that Russia is out of the recession will not get one, and together with its major trading partners from the EU. Despite the crisis our country is not afraid, the experience of the leading economies of the world to overcome the smooth decline in production need to urgently adopt the view of youth and the weakness of the Russian economy.

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Rating developments affecting the Russian market

NOTE:

1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with a rating, the events of D on top of our scale, have little influence.

2. Sections “Macroeconomics” and “commodity markets” in column 2 of brackets could be given to top the previous day.
3. Arrow “down” in the column, 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, Arrow “up” - the positive /neutral.

Investment

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