next week in Russia's government will discuss the investment program in energy. However, yesterday's Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko named two key points of this program - the growth of oil production and increase in electricity tariffs for industrial enterprises.

Sergei Shmatko said that in 2009 the Ministry of Energy of Russia predicts increase in oil production at 0.4 percent. According to him, the annual rate of extraction of black gold to rise from last year - 488 million tonnes to 490 million tons.

On raising the forecast for the extraction of impacted oil prices, which are through 2009 only grew. On the dependence of production and the price of black gold said at the end of last year and first deputy prime minister Igor Sechin. I would not hurry to make a forecast: we will take into account the current situation, in the case of the dramatic fall in the price of the company will be forced to cut (production), - he said then.

But for a steady accumulation of production there are certain obstacles. If this and the following year, the oil will be able to sustain production at the right level, then it will only decrease - in the investment plans of Russia's oil companies lowered the costs of exploration and mining. With the current reduction of exploration in the 20-30% of potential drilling areas of known and exploited fields will be largely exhausted within 3-5 years. That is, has nothing to do with what amounts investments will not be able to raise production if the replenishment of the resource base will be a stable negative , - analyst IK Financial Bridge Dmitry Alexandrov.

If companies do not conduct exploration of one year, it is the production of oil will not be affected. If they do not keep it for several years, it did not significantly affect production in 5-7 years, - adds analyst at Alfa Bank Shirvani Abdullayev .

Russia has security only proved reserves of about 20 years. All other categories of reserves and resources in dozens of times. Vospolnyaemosti ratio stocks in recent years exceeded 100%. The key issue here - just invest in exploration, which can translate into the category of proven reserves , - analyst IK Finam Alexander Eremin. But Russia's oil companies can not increase investment in exploration. The main reasons - high tariffs on mining and the fact that the state does not seek to actively distribute a license to develop the oil fields.

According to forecasts by Dmitry Alexandrov, in 2010 marked the intensification of investment in exploration - especially in regionswhere the tax breaks take effect (the abolition of tax on oil production). However, not all companies can benefit from this - no taxes will be levied only those fields that will be the resource base for the export pipeline Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean. And this is mostly state-owned companies - Rosneft and Gazprom-Neft. Private companies such as Lukoil, are planning to start developing oil fields overseas.

Despite this, Russia's government is counting on long-term growth of oil production - is talking about it and approved last week the Energy Strategy to 2030. It provides for increased oil production in 2030 to 9-10%. The growth in output, given input shelf of the Caspian Sea, Okhotsk Sea and Arctic Ocean basin, it is quite realistic. Everything will depend on the consumption and preparation for the technological breakthrough in deep water drilling and production is already in progress, - said Dmitry Alexandrov. Not only clear, whether the State to encourage exploration and development of oil fields, to ensure that growth of production.

Another fundamental point in the discussion of Russia's Energy Investment Program - increase the electricity tariff for industrial enterprises. According to Sergei Shmatko, planned to raise fares than 5%, as was planned earlier, and at 6-7%. Although the Minister denied the relationship and the need to raise rates to recover the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES, an indirect connection with the accident he recognized came anyway. He said the tariff increase is due, including compensation for thermal generators for their costs of putting more pressure because of the stopped due to power plant accident.

However, the issue of tariff increases in the government consent. Two weeks ago, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said that the ministry will insist in order to raise them to 12-15% instead of 5%. According to Klepach, to cover losses from the accident with the resources RusHydro and borrowed funds will be impossible.

According to the chief economist of the Criminal Code Rus-Capital Alexei Logvina, raising tariffs to 6-7% did not affect the work of industrial enterprises and meet expectations. In fact, this increase below inflation. The greater increase insisted mainly energy companies that have developed a strong argument in the form of accident at the Sayan-Shushenskaya GES, which must refinance retrofitting power stations. But to predict the economic damage to businesses in case of increase of 12-15% of the experts difficult. One thing is clear: even if the government will stop at version 6.7%, Russia's treasury will still have to compensate for the missing to repair power plant equipment.

Energy Strategy of Russia till 2030 provides for a reduction in oil exports and an increase in the proportion of non-fuel energy in Russia's fuel and energy complex, which is intended to reduce the dependence of Russia's economy away from commodity exports. Only here for the words, printed in the paper has not yet seen action in this direction.

Rating developments affecting Russia's market

 

C

C

 

 

NOTE:

1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with a rating of A events with D rating on our scale, have little influence.

2. In the sections Macroeconomics and Commodity Markets in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating of the previous day.
3. down arrow in column 3 indicates the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow up - positive /neutral.

FUNDS - moderately negative

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