green shoots of economic growth, which many economists talking just the spring, has not grown up in beautiful trees, while summer has long been in full swing. Under the germ economists Forecasters often meant slowing down the recession in the U.S. and the EU, signs of stabilization in the housing market, reducing the threat of deflation, the persistence of high growth in China, exceeding forecasts of quarterly corporate reports of U.S. companies, unfreezing the world's credit markets and the reduction risk premiums. Mostly the view that the recession in the United States is coming to an end and growth will resume by the end of 2009, these factors otygryvalis markets from March to the last time, reflected in weakening the defense of currencies (dollar, yen) to the major international currencies, increase in commodity prices , capital flows to emerging markets.

But gradually increasing doubt - Do not overestimate the quality of these markets green sprout? The main problem - the exhaustion of consumer demand in the United States as a source of world economic growth - have not disappeared, - said Olga Belenky, Deputy. Head of analytical department of Sovlink. Financial stability is supported by a huge overhang of liquidity, vbroshennoy in the central bank (the Fed only the monetary base has increased by half that in the event of economic recovery and expansion of lending faces a sharp rise in inflation). Along with the improvement of several economic indicators in the United States we have seen a steady rise in unemployment to 25-year-old records, the reduction of working hours and wages, the decline in consumer spending. Despite the improvement in the financial markets and excess liquidity, bank lending continued to decline. In combination withweak labor market and zakreditovannostyu households, this means that in the coming years, consumer demand in the United States would hinder economic recovery , - believes Ms. Belenky. Problems in the banking sector, in particular, the problem of a huge amount of toxic assets. With the improvement of the formal financial results of major U.S. banks, the profit is usually caused by disposable income from operations investbankovskih, while the increase in losses on loans continuing. Bankers themselves do not exclude the possibility of a new hotbed of the banking crisis in the United States and Europe (commercial real estate, credit cards, and Eastern European borrowers). According to economist Olga Belenky, in the longer term strategy of the Fed may not be on the timing and pace of the early exit strategy of enabling monetary policy, nor the Government's ability to reduce the looming budget deficit the U.S. has a lot of questions about the possibility and cost of financing.

Interesting epithets, which zhongliruyut U.S. financial officials. Instead of green sprout is now talking about the sluggish recovery. A lot of talk about the future to stabilize the situation in the U.S. economy, subject to the weakness of the coming recovery. In particular, the Fed head Ben Bernanke said the economy shows tentative signs of stabilization. Perhaps now we revive the sluggish start, - said the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher.

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