Volatility Russia's stock market at the end of the week has increased because of the different polarities of statistics in the U.S.: as a result of trades on Friday and marketable securities indices showed mixed trends.
MICEX Index rose to 1187.86 points (0.9%), the RTS index dropped to 1225.29 points (-1.36%), the cost of most chips on the stock exchanges has changed within 0,1-3, 2%.
Futures on the RTS index to closing the session down to the underlying asset at 14.4 points, which suggests a moderately negative moods of speculators.
Last week
MICEX index fell by 1,7%, RTS index has lost 1,6%.
On Friday, shares rose Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) (0,4% on MICEX), Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) (1,5%), Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) (3 , 2%), Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) (0,8%), Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) (0,3%), Sberbank of Russia (RTS: SBER) (2,4%).
cheaper paper VTB (RTS: VTBR) (-0,2% and -8,6% in RTS), Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS) (-1,5%), Tatneft (RTS: TATN ) (-0.04%), Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) (-0,8%).
Released finotchet poles in the first half of 2009 on standards IFRS was at the level of projections: net profit fell by almost 7% to $ 150.013 million, the experts expected a profit at an average of $ 152.2 million in the same time, previously reported that net profit poles in the first half of 2008 was $ 132.4 million (in a report published on Friday - $ 160.887 million). Accordingly, most analysts expect profit growth, not decline.
European stocks added to the Friday evening within the 0,5%, U.S. indexes fell to 18:45 on 0,1-0,5%, oil adjusted upward after the fall on the eve of statistic data from the U.S..
futures price for oil of mark WTI for November to 18:45 on Friday was $ 66.13 per barrel (0,4%), on Thursday the price had fallen to $ 3,08 (-4,5%).
Released in the U.S. on Friday economic statistics was heteropolar, added that Russia's stock market volatility.
Thus, the MICEX index fell below 1,180 points for the data on volume of orders for durable goods in August (orders fell by a record in January at 2.4% growth forecast by 0,4%), after which he returned to the area of 1190 items Data on consumer confidence for September (the index of confidence rose to 73.5 points, was expected to increase to 70.5 points). Negative figures for sales were new buildings in the U.S. in August - sales rose 0.7% while the forecast increase of 1,6%.
Investors await news from the summit of Twenties (G20), which may be taken fresh solutions for an immediate withdrawal of the world economy out of recession. As reports Bloomberg referring to the presidential representative in the United States Michael Frohman G20, G20 countries at the summit on Friday in Pittsburgh are close to a unanimous verdict on the limitation of banking bonuses and containment of risks that have helped shape the global financial crisis. Also prepared a framework decision on the amount of bank capital, which will be deemed sufficient for stable operations.
According to the analyst IFC Alemar Basil Konuzin, after the required blood letting the stock market will begin recovery, drawing support in the liquidity and positive expectations regarding the upcoming publication of corporate reports of U.S. companies. Given the correction in oil prices, prospects currently have shares of resource-based companies: energy and telecommunications. In the latter case, the emerging news about the ambitions of Svyazinvest could benefit MRK shares, through which minority shareholders can go to the created telecommunications giant, which as it turned out, did not exclude the possibility of an alliance with one of the representatives of the big three wireless, - says the analyst.
According to the analyst of IFC Metropol, Dmitri Dzuba, the pressure of oil provided the data for the consumption of raw materials: the demand for petroleum products in general, last week declined by 3.2 million barrels compared to the previous one. Meanwhile, in the medium term oil price appears to be supported by maintaining a high supply of liquidity by central banks. In particular, following the recent meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA announced its intention to continue the redemption of mortgage bonds and mortgage agencies in the first quarter of next year, while earlier it was expected that the program will be completed later this year. As part of this decision, the Fed may have to spend about $ 650 billion for the acquisition of assets, notes the analyst.
less optimistic analyst at Aton Natalia Vygodina, pointing to the fact that oil prices are showing negative signals in the perspective of next month. Despite the moderate signal indicators in the presence of support at $ 66 per barrel WTI, support in the region of $ 70 per barrel, still could not resist, that is a negative signal. If you continue, the negative dynamics of the first to reduce the stamp will be $ 60 more - $ 50-55. The immediate support for the MICEX index is at 1150 points, the resistance - 1210 points, analysts believe.
According to the analyst Promsvyazbank (RTS: PRSB) Oleg steps, the trajectory of Russia's indices for the week was quite intricate and somewhat reminiscent of the tortuous pace of hares in the financial fog under the whispering oaks of witch.
Despite the sharp decline in oil prices, lost a week for about 7%, and the talks that the U.S. Federal Reserve in the future may require curtailing aggressive incentive programs, on the equity market, aggressive sales were reported. The optimism of domestic investors, apparently, was based on the prejudice that might not have gone so well, but definitely not bad, the market has reached bottom and is ready to grow. Therefore, strong demand last week for corporate news shares enjoyed a second tier, as an outsider proved oil and gas sector, where sales were precipitated by the collapse of world oil prices.
leader of growth was the electricity sector amid reports that the European part of Russia and the Urals planned electricity consumption per week has increased by 12,2%. The favorites of growth in this sector were shares of Enel-WGC-5 (RTS: OGKE) and FGC UES (RTS: FEES), was added to the price per week is more than 10% due to corporate news. In particular, Enel-WGC-5 has published a strong financial record, and FGC UES approved the plan to move us to a new system of tariff regulation, said steps.
analyst at SG Finans-Invest Stanislav Savinov believes that after a brief optimism the market is still headed for the testing of medium-term uptrend line and its reversal point, located at 1165 points on the MICEX.
The Fed has continued to move in the wake of downsizing programs quantitative easing, the economy, reduce programs TAF and TSLF. In addition, monetary authorities consider the possibility of early withdrawal of liquidity through open market transactions involving assets of money market funds. The situation is aggravated Kevin Vorsha village representative The Fed, which in an interview with WSJ noted that the regulator should be used to embarking on the completion of programs to stimulate the economy , - said the analyst.
In addition, the stronger yen, indicating that decommissioning operations carry trade. Oil prices are already about $ 66 per barrel, which seriously hurts the investment attractiveness of Russia's stock market. From the results of a meeting of G20 leaders to some pleasant surprises await hardly worth - believes Savinov.
indices in the U.S. before the fall because of declining sales of housing in the country and reduce some of the emergency lending programs of the Federal Reserve System. Oil fell to a minimum for the month against a background of strengthening the dollar, US Treasuries are going to increase.
Sales of homes on the secondary housing market in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in August on 2,7% - to 5.1 million homes at an annual rate, the experts expect growth to 2,1% - to 5,35 million
U.S. Federal Reserve has motivated the decision to reduce some of lending programs imposed by it in a matter of urgency in times of crisis, continued improvement in financial markets.
In particular, the U.S. Central Bank will reduce the amount of funds that will be offered to banks at regular auctions, the program short-term financing (Term Auction Facility, TAF) in October and again in November and December. The Fed also cut in October lending bonds (Term Securities Lending Facility, TSLF).
the Asian markets on Friday showed a decrease due to the weak statistic data about the U.S. housing market and record the additional issue Nomura volume of $ 5.6 billion, reported Bloomberg.
supposed to fall in the value of shares in Nomura trading on Friday will be the sharpest since 1974 and exceeds the specified daily limit (16%), but trading securities brokers were terminated because the number of offers for sale far exceeded the number of proposals for purchase.
company publishes about 800 million shares in Japan and abroad, which equals approximately 30% of its issued and outstanding shares. The transaction will take place from 13 to 15 October. The bulk of the proceeds will go to expand operations in the U.S., but some of the money will be spent on business development in Europe and Asia.
Among second-tier on the MICEX exchange on Friday were the best performing stocks PIK (RTS: PIKK) (29,7% and 18,2% in the RTS - to $ 3.19), Raspadskaya ( RTS: RASP) (9,6%), Belon (7,5%), TGK-1 (RTS: TGKA) (5,8%).
eve of the Deutsche Bank raised the predictive value of global depository receipts (GDR) peak at 8% - from $ 3.6 to $ 3.9 per unit, recommendation buy for these securities remained unchanged.
Support
shares Raspadskaya had a report for the first half of IFRS, which was better than expected. The company ended the half with a net loss of $ 11 million, experts expected losses on average $ 19 million
Upali shares AvtoVAZ (RTS: AVAZ) (-7,7%), Irkutskenergo (RTS: IRGZ) (-3,1%), OGK-5 (-2.9%).
Суммарный объем торгов акциÑми на клаÑÑичеÑком рынке РТС за день ÑоÑтавил $14,15 млн, в Ñекции RTS Standard оборот доÑтиг $340,55 млн, на ФБ ММВБ объем Ñделок ÑоÑтавил 70,67 млрд рублей (лидеры - обыкновенные акции Сбербанка - 29, 09 billion rubles).
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